Fleetowner Com Sites Fleetowner com Files Uploads 2015 01 Larkin Stifel
Fleetowner Com Sites Fleetowner com Files Uploads 2015 01 Larkin Stifel
Fleetowner Com Sites Fleetowner com Files Uploads 2015 01 Larkin Stifel
Fleetowner Com Sites Fleetowner com Files Uploads 2015 01 Larkin Stifel
Fleetowner Com Sites Fleetowner com Files Uploads 2015 01 Larkin Stifel

The “not” list for 2015

Jan. 6, 2015
John Larkin, managing director & head of transportation capital markets research for Wall Street investment firm Stifel Nicolaus & Co., is never one to provide half-hearted prognostications where the freight industry is concerned – especially regarding the ongoing truck driver shortage.

A good case in point is Larkin’s most recent analysis; what he is wryly dubbing the ‘not” list for 2015 – as in predictions about what won’t happen this year.

It’s a fairly broad list, too; one touching on everything from truck driver pay to Congressional efforts to pass a multi-year surface transportation bill.

So without further ado, let’s take a look at some of things Larkin believes won’t materialize in 2015:

  • Truck driver pay hikes will NOT solve the driver crisis
  • Winter weather in the first quarter of 2015 will NOT be as debilitating or more debilitating compared to the first quarter of 2014.
  • Chicago-related congestion will NOT be easily solved with committee work and the multifaceted CREATE project.
  • Fuel cost reductions will NOT help public truckload carriers.
  • Congress will NOT develop a long-term, cogent, well-funded highway/transportation infrastructure revitalization plan
  • The tax extenders bill – designed to promote investment in transportation infrastructure and rolling stock – will NOT be passed at the beginning of the year.
  • Truckload sector merger and acquisition activity will NOT take a breather.
  • Logistics companies – particularly TL and LTL brokers – will NOT continue to see robust conditions in 2015.

Sadly, Larkin’s last prediction doesn’t augur well for fans of the Baltimore Ravens NFL football team: he does NOT expect the purple-and-black to win the Super Bowl this year.

And as the Ravens face the New England Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs this upcoming weekend – on their home turf, no less – there’s a very high percentage that the final item on Larkin’s “not” list will become reality.

About the Author

Sean Kilcarr 1 | Senior Editor

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