Study predicts diesel’s dominance of Class 8 engines will contract by 2021

In 2015, diesel engines made up 98.5% of the North American Class 8 vehicle market, but the forecast expects this dominance to lessen by 2021, according to a new report by Americas Commercial Transportation (ACT) Research and Rhein Associates.

The N.A. On-highway CV Engine Outlook, available now, is designed to present historical trends, current activity and forecasts of engine demand in on-highway commercial vehicles. The report analyzes significant trends in engine displacement, engine type (diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and other), captive versus non-captive engines, and premium versus non-premium power for Class 8 vehicles.

“This new report details current and future OEM offerings, the engine-related regulations in the pipeline and the impact of these regulations on the market, as well as our forecast for the North American commercial vehicle engine industry through 2021,” said Tom Rhein, president of Rhein Associates. “For instance, the Class 8 production was split 75.5% tractor to 24.5% truck in 2015, but we expect the truck share to grow as explained in the report.”

According to ACT’s senior partner and general manager Ken Vieth: “We see captive engines gain in market share, as in-house models increase and displacements are reduced. While we don’t expect a complete reversal by 2021, the industry is certainly going through a transition. Diesel dominates, but the share will narrow, and non-captive engines are likely to decline, barring any unforeseen circumstances.”

“With the impending GHG Phase Two regulations and growth of vertical integration across the supply chain, and with the constant push for engine efficiencies and reduced emissions simultaneously, now seemed like the time to apply our models and expertise collaboratively to provide intel unlike any other available,” Vieth added.

Rhein Associates is a supplier of powertrain information to worldwide clients enabling accurate and informed business decisions and marketing plans. RAI produces 3 major publications: The Rhein Report (monthly newsletter), The Future of Diesel Engines (five-year history and forecast book), and various engine databases as well as accomplishing various consulting projects.

ACT is the publisher of new and used commercial vehicle (CV) industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American market, as well as the U.S. tractor-trailer market and the China CV market. ACT’s CV services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as the banking and investment community.

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