Record truck demand: According to FTR, June’s preliminary orders were about 68% above the 10-year June average and represent the second-largest June net order total since FTR began tracking the metric.

A year ago, truck demand was pitiful: The for-hire market was suffering a prolonged 13-quarter drought of low rates; tariff chaos had peaked; and NOx regulatory uncertainty remained high. June 2025 orders, according to ACT Research, were only 9,463.

This year’s equipment market is stronger: Those 2025 orders are a far cry from this June’s 31,400, thanks to improved market conditions. For-hire rates are finally rising after capacity buckled; tariff policy is, at least, less chaotic than a year ago; and the industry has broadly assumed the shape of EPA’s coming NOx regulation change, though the proposed rulemaking is not yet public.

“Underpinning the seven-month run of strong Class 8 order activity has been the ongoing, supply-led and demand-supported recovery in the trucking industry,” Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said. “As we say, truckers only buy trucks when they make money. Underscoring the rapid change in carrier fortunes, freight rates continue to soar.”

Orders likely to spill into 2027: Both firms noted that continued high demand—piled onto an already full Class 8 backlog—raises the odds that orders will spill into the first half of 2027 if manufacturers’ production cannot keep up. Next year's trucks are likely to face cost increases under EPA’s NOx rule. The agency is still working on unpublished revisions to lower the rule’s cost, which the trucking industry believes will take the form of weaker warranty requirements.

“The possibility that orders are already spilling over into Q1 slots in 2027 raises the stakes on the details of changes to the EPA 2027 NOx revisions.” Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles for FTR, said. “The industry’s understanding is that EPA will retain the 2027 start date and 0.035 g/hp-hr NOx limit but soften provisions related to warranty, useful life, and credit trading provisions.

“Overall, June orders confirm that the Class 8 cycle remains constructive, as monthly intake continues to surprise to the upside,” Moyer continued. “The bigger question now is not demand but how much of the 2026 backlog converts to production before uncertainty over EPA, tariffs, and USMCA reshapes fleet timing for 2027.”