Freight volumes were doing just fine until the week of St. Patrick’s Day, when it became clear the novel coronavirus had far more in common with the Spanish flu from 100 years ago than the seasonal one. The global death toll was less than 10,000, and New York City was mulling a shelter-in-place order. Six weeks later, nearly 13,000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in New York City and the country is largely still in shutdown mode, with non-essential businesses closed and many manufacturing plants shuttered.
Overall, truck freight volume has plummeted to a third of what it was mid-March, according to the COVID-19 Truck Freight Recovery Index, a report created by Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence.
The index compares current dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed volume conditions against pre-pandemic levels, taking into account historical patterns and seasonal fluctuations.
“Because this is not a traditional economic recession, we are watching the dynamics in distinct phases that are unique to this crisis,” said Eric Starks, chairman and CEO for FTR Transportation Intelligence. “The freight recovery index shows that a shutdown has been in full swing for several weeks and that freight is mostly bouncing along the bottom as everyone is sheltering at home.”
But hope may be on the horizon as it appears these transportation metrics have plateaued and recovery could soon follow. An index level of 60 is the median for economic restart and hitting 100 means a full recovery for the sector. Because trucks move 70% of goods across the country, metrics like this are believed to be solid indicators of overall economic health.
Currently, the aggregate of dry, reefer and flatbed appears to be heading north on the chart.
“Once we start to see things picking up, the trajectory of the restart will help us better understand whether this is a ‘U-shaped’ recovery or a ‘V-shaped’ recovery,” Starks said.
It will definitely be an arduous uphill climb, though. Dry, which peaked near 140, is now almost 100 points lower. Flatbed, which in the third week of March was bobbing above 100, has been straddling 20 throughout April. Reefer saw the biggest climb because of the shutdown, as people were stocking up on groceries. It exceeded 170 on March 23, and after a steep fall, is clawing back up to the restart phase.
