I have talked before about what we at NACFE are calling the “messy middle” as we are transitioning from diesel as the predominant fuel to what eventually will be a predominantly electric powered future.
Just to review, during our work on our latest Guidance Report, Viable Class 7/8 Electric, Hybrid, And Alternative Fuel Tractors, we found that between now and about 2040 we will see a variety of fuels — CNG/LNG, hybrid diesel electric, first generation electric and fuel cell and advanced diesel — powering commercial vehicles. The market will continue to develop, and we will see renewable CNG and diesel along with next generation electric and electric fuel cell vehicles. Finally, we will get to electric power from clean energy.
We termed this time the messy middle because there will be so much going on and there will not be one clear path for fleets to follow.
I think some folks are seeing the messy middle as either a good thing or a bad thing. I was talking to Rob Reich, EVP, Chief Administrative Officer at Schneider, and he contends that the messy middle is neither good nor bad but actually a natural process that occurs as an industry makes a transformational shift.
During this time of transition, you should not just sit on the sidelines to see how things play out. You need to get involved in helping vet these technologies. During the messy middle, each power source will play a role and we need to determine in which duty cycles these various technologies work best so we can maximize both freight efficiency and fleet profitability.
During a recent webinar, Reich encouraged fleets to take a disciplined approach to test and assess the new technologies. There is so much hype out in the market about every one of these alternatives. Only through testing and assessment will fleets get a rational, fact-based perspective of how these various technologies will perform in their specific operation.
At the risk of being accused of shameless self-promotion, the series of Guidance Reports NACFE has published on alternate fueled vehicles is a good starting place for your measured, discipled assessment process. We pride ourselves on being the objective source of information and our reports include not only the benefits of these technologies, but also the challenges. We also talk about applications where each of these technologies make sense and where they likely will not perform very well.
As these technologies continue to develop, there likely will be changes in the types of applications where the various options make sense. We intend to keep you updated on major develops, shifts and breakthroughs. These reports are now downloadable at no cost through some funding we recently received.
While we see all electric power in the future, we aren’t going to get there tomorrow. In the meantime, we need to delve into the messy middle and get the most out of the various technology options that are rapidly developing.
