FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index for February stays positive

At a near neutral reading of 0.6, FTR’s February Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) reflects a balanced freight market. February is the fifth consecutive month that the SCI has been in positive territory with forecasts for the shipping environment to gradually improve through early Q4. After that, conditions should settle into a near neutral range with truck freight rates expected to be down, capacity additions likely decelerating and a relatively stable fuel cost outlook. However, if recent increases in crude oil prices continue, that could raise shippers’ costs and negatively impact the SCI reading.

“The freight market remained relatively balanced in February despite the beginning of significant weather-related disruptions to freight flows,” Todd Tranausky, vice president of rail and intermodal at FTR, commented. “A stable truck market combined with resilience in the eastern rail networks have helped keep shippers conditions from deteriorating.”

The April issue of FTR’s Shippers Update, published April 5, 2019, details the factors affecting the February Shippers Conditions Index. Also included is an analysis of driver shortage commentary recently published on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics website.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions.

The index tells you the industry’s health at a glance. In life, running a fever is an indication of a health problem. It may not tell you exactly what’s wrong, but it alerts you to look deeper. Similarly, a reading well below zero on the FTR Trucking Conditions Index warns you of a problem...and readings high above zero spell opportunity. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment. Double digit readings (both up or down) are warning signs for significant operating changes.

For more than two decades, FTR has been the thought leader in freight transportation forecasting in North America. The company’s national award-winning forecasters collect and analyze all data likely to impact freight movement, issuing consistently reliable reports for trucking, rail, and intermodal transportation, as well as providing demand analysis for commercial vehicle and railcar. FTR’s forecasting and specially designed reports have resulted in advanced planning and cost-savings for companies throughout the transportation sector.