According to AAA, the current national gasoline price average is $3.163. This is 2 cents higher than the EIA’s current estimate and 31 cents lower than this time last year.
According to Matt Muenster, chief economist at Breakthrough, diesel inventories are responsible for keeping diesel prices low.
“Wholesale diesel prices in the Gulf Coast spot market region fell about 20 cents per gallon from July 18 to 31,” Muenster told FleetOwner. “This was largely driven by Gulf Coast diesel inventories climbing more than 5 million barrels during that time and broad U.S. macroeconomic uncertainty pushing energy prices lower. Diesel inventories have been unseasonably tight this summer, but they increased through the month of July and, therefore, in recent weeks, are meeting seasonal expectations.”
Muenster expects this pattern to continue for the rest of 2025, with increasing crude oil and diesel inventories. This should make total diesel and gas prices fairly comparable to 2024.
“The freight market remains comparable to the 2024 market,” Muenster said. “Truckload tonnage grew momentarily in February because of tariff-induced front-loading but moderated and fell year-over-year in the latest data (May), while intermodal demand was very strong during the first quarter before moderating during the second quarter. We expect the 2025 peak season for freight to be comparable with the 2024 peak season. Diesel will continue to experience price pressure from relatively tight fuel supplies when compared with other refined products; however, domestic demand for diesel will likely be on par with 2024 levels to end summer and enter autumn.”