• Trailer orders stay strong but for how long?

    Slumping freight volumes, low rates, and declining Class 8 orders should crimp trailer demand soon.
    May 18, 2016
    2 min read
    Stifel said it is ldquounlikelyrdquo that trailer orders will be able to significantly outperform demand for Class 8 tractors which are expected to remain weak Photo by Sean KilcarrFleet Owner

    Preliminary net trailer orders for April reached 17,200 units, according to data tracked by ACT Research, which is a 15% increase from March’s order rate of 14,981 units. Yet that is about 5% below the order rate of 17,992 units achieved in April last year

    Michael Baudendistel, vice president of Stifel Financial Corp.’s transportation & logistics research group, noted in a statement that

    April’s trailer order rate “was somewhat stronger than we would have expected, given that April orders are generally weaker seasonally  and considering the severe weakness in recent Class 8 orders.”

    Yet he believes it is “unlikely” that trailer orders will be able to significantly outperform demand for Class 8 tractors, which Stifel expects will remain weak.

    “We understand the arguments in favor of trailer demand outpacing Class 8 demand: favorable age demographic of trailers in the current active population, which are in need of replacement, and an increase in drop-and-hook activity, which necessitates more trailers per tractor,” Baudendistel explained.

    “But while we believe those factors will cause trailer demand to hold up somewhat better than Class 8 demand, we believe the overall weakness in freight markets recently, poor TL and LTL pricing, and the historical correlation between tractor and trailer orders will continue to put pressure on trailer demand.”

    About the Author

    Sean Kilcarr

    Editor in Chief

    Sean Kilcarr is a former longtime FleetOwner senior editor who wrote for the publication from 2000 to 2018. He served as editor-in-chief from 2017 to 2018.

     

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