he added.
However, year-over-year comparisons were negative, Vieth said, as Class 8 orders are down 24% in December 2016 compared to the same month in 2015.
By contrast, medium duty Class 5-7 orders climbed to an eight-month high of 20,600 units back in December, he noted, though for all of 2016, medium-duty orders of 228,500 units were “a virtual carbon-copy” of 2015’s net order intake, giving up 1.1% compared to 2015, he said.
Stifel’s Baudendistel, though, noted that medium duty orders “have now declined for five consecutive months” and that following weak orders in November last (down 9% compared to November 2015), his firm reduced its 2017 medium-duty production estimate to 230,000 units from 235,000 units.
“We are maintaining that forecast for now, though we believe persistent weakness in orders indicates there remains pressure to the downside on our recently-lowered forecast,” he added.
That being said, Don Ake, vice president of commercial vehicles at research firm FTR, believes that Class 8 orders in particular “have been following stable, traditional, patterns for six months now,” and based on fourth quarter 2016 order volumes “should begin a modest recovery in February.”
He added that the most recent economic news has been positive, so freight demand should keep truck orders propped up for a few more months.
“[Though] 2017 still looks to be a tough year, backlogs are [now] growing and that means the worst should be behind us for now,” Ake said.
