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Diesel average dips, but more price hikes may be brewing amid shortage concerns

Nov. 15, 2022
Slight decrease in national price of trucking’s main fuel belies continued concerns that the U.S. is headed toward a diesel shortage this winter that could escalate prices nearer to the midsummer 2022 record of $5.81.

The national average for diesel fuel remains over $5.30 per gallon, though it dipped slightly—2 cents—for the week of Nov. 14, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This means that the fuel remains stubbornly expensive, as in $1.579 a gallon pricier than this time last year.

But could the U.S. average go higher and perhaps approach this June's per-gallon record of $5.81? Experts think a new irritant—not the fighting in Russia, not surging demand, and not rising oil prices but a diesel shortage—could send the price of trucking’s main fuel toward those heights.

See also: Diesel prices static as supply concerns emerge

EIA reported that, as of Oct. 14, the U.S. had 25.4 days of distillate supplies (diesel is one along with jet fuel and home heating oil) left, sparking fears of a supply crunch. That outlook has improved only slightly more recently to 26 days of supply, around the lowest since 2008.

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consulting firm and analyzer of market trends, told CNBC that he expected the national average to rise “15 to 20 cents in the next few weeks.” The same CNBC report said the U.S. ban on Russian products, set for next year and put in place after that country’s bloody invasion of Ukraine early this spring, will intensify competition for fuel and drive prices even higher than the $5.45 to $5.50 that Lipow predicted.

Might this period now be the calm before the coming storm?

The U.S. diesel average only registered a slight increase last week, 1.6 cents, according to EIA. Motor club AAA saw only a 2.1-cent increase in diesel over last week, though its national average is almost $5.36 per gallon, or slightly more than EIA.

Besides the national average, EIA reported there were slight decreases in two of the five regions for which it reports data. Diesel for the week of Nov. 14 was down 5.1 cents to $4.886 per gallon along the Gulf Coast (cheapest region in the nation) and slipped 3 cents to $5.321 in the Midwest, according to EIA.

The fuel was flat or up only slightly elsewhere: up a fraction of a penny to $5.474 on the East Coast (where supply is nevertheless constricted) and up half a penny on the West Coast to $5.769 but 6.3 cents higher to $5.40 per gallon in the Rocky Mountain region.

Gasoline followed a similar trajectory as diesel for the week of Nov. 14, according to EIA. Gas fell 3.4 cents to $3.762, or about $1.55 per gallon cheaper than diesel. Gasoline also was down in every region of the U.S. except the East Coast.

About the Author

Scott Achelpohl | Managing Editor

I'm back to the trucking and transportation track of my career after some time away freelancing and working to cover the branches of the U.S. military, specifically the U.S. Navy, U.S. Marine Corps, and the U.S. Coast Guard. I'm a graduate of the University of Kansas and the William Allen White School of Journalism there with several years of experience inside and outside business-to-business journalism. I'm a wordsmith by nature, and I edit FleetOwner magazine and our website as well as report and write all kinds of news that affects trucking and transportation.

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