Truck manufacturing capacity has shifted outside the U.S. over the last few years. According to public comments submitted by Paccar, between 2019 and 2023, U.S. Class 8 production fell 15% while overall Class 8 registrations remained steady.
Major truck manufacturers may shift some of their production to the U.S., as Daimler Truck suggested shortly after the 2024 election, to reduce the impacts of tariffs.
It could be several months before those import fees reach truck buyers, as U.S. companies this year have generally tried to suffer initial tariff costs to avoid sudden price spikes.
According to public comments submitted by the Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association (MEMA) on tariffs earlier this year, roughly 35% of all medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles in the U.S. are imported.
Tariffs on consumer goods pose challenges for freight and intermodal demand
During the same string of social media posts, Trump also announced a potentially painful 50% tariff on many household goods, a 30% tariff on all upholstered furniture, and a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical products if the product’s company is not building a plant in the U.S.—all effective October 1. These tariffs could further weaken freight demand in those sectors.
Before Trump announced the new October 1 tariffs, ACT Research was already warning about how the president’s trade war was hurting the trucking industry’s recovery from the freight recession.
“Extra pre-tariff equipment purchases and ongoing volume softness have kept truckload market conditions from tightening this year, and most of the adverse effects of tariffs are still to come,” Tim Denoyer, ACT Research VP and senior analyst, said on Thursday. “As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious. Container shipping activity is set to fall sharply, which will likely affect intermodal most acutely from a surface freight perspective.”
According to ACT’s latest Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook report, the market was nearing balance in late 2024 and early 2025, with rates and volume trends improving. But the Trump tariffs reversed that momentum.
OEMs and ATA push back on truck import tariffs as fleets face rising costs
Each of the nation’s major OEMs—Daimler, Paccar, Volvo, and Traton—has previously written public comments opposing tariffs on finished trucks.
In the wake of the announcement, shares of Daimler Truck and Traton tumbled roughly 3% in early morning overseas trading.
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) gently criticized the Trump administration for its announcement.
“ATA disagreed with the premise of this investigation from its inception, and we filed comments with the U.S. Department of Commerce last spring to convey our opposition,” Chris Spear, ATA CEO, said. “In line with the Administration's goal to revitalize U.S. manufacturing, we support the goal of creating domestic jobs. As you know, however, the trucking industry has been navigating an extremely challenging operating environment, with rising costs and soft freight volumes. We are assessing the impact that these new tariffs could have on truck prices as manufacturers look to shift production from Mexico, as permitted under USMCA, to the United States—costs that motor carriers small and large will be forced to absorb.”
ATA also noted that truck prices could be relieved slightly in the near future, should the Trump administration revise the low NOx rule or remove the federal excise tax, which already adds 13% to heavy-duty commercial equipment, including tractors, trucks, and trailers.
