FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) achieved a record-high in April, surpassing the previously record-setting high in March, due to the reversal of March’s higher diesel prices. The relief in fuel costs was short-lived, but FTR Intel expects solid freight demand well into 2022.
“We have yet to see signs that the driver capacity situation is changing, and May’s weak payroll jobs data for trucking is one indication,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented. “Over the next few months, one potential constraint—generous unemployment benefits—will end. While those benefits likely contribute to the hiring challenge, we are skeptical that their demise will fundamentally change the dynamic.”
Although most market factors were not quite as strong in April as they were in March, freight rates are expected to keep the TCI quite strong in the near term and at least in positive single digits into 2022 and perhaps beyond.
“Given the competition for labor—job openings in the economy are at an all-time high—trucking’s capacity challenge could linger longer than usual,” Vise added. “One signal we are watching closely is the spot market. If rates and volumes begin to ease, that could indicate a balancing of freight demand and route guide capacity.”
