• Black Friday Positive for Freight Forecast

    Black Friday may spell good news for truck tonnage
    Nov. 29, 2004
    2 min read
    Image

    The post-2005 tonnage outlook is starting to flesh out positively as retail sales data indicate that consumers are clearing out stocks for the holidays.

    ShopperTrak estimated that retail sales on Black Friday jumped 10.8% year-over-year to reach $8 billion, reported the Wall Street Journal. Visa USA has announced that its cardholders charged over $4.1 billion on that Friday— a 15.5% jump over the same day last year.

    “Consumers aren’t procrastinating this year,” said Wayne Best, Visa’s senior vp—strategic economic analysis. “They began their holiday shopping in early November and hit the malls in force on Black Friday.”

    Retail giant Wal-Mart, however sung a different tune after lowering its year-over-year November sales forecast to 0.7% growth, compared to its earlier estimated increase of 2% to 4%.

    Despite these mixed reports on the first month of the holiday shopping season, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) is expecting sales to be robust, which may translate to underlying strength in tonnage.

    “If retail sales are strong during November and December, the new orders won’t be reflected in the truck tonnage index until 2005,” Tavio Headley, ATA economist, told Fleet Owner. “About one-fourth of retail sales in a given year are made between Thanksgiving and Christmas, so if they’re strong, we should see a boost.”

    However, it is still too early to declare the holidays a success for retailers and truckers, said Headley, as the shopping season doesn’t end until a week after Christmas.

    Tonnage actually slipped 0.4% in October from the previous month, which was attributed to there being two fewer working days compared to October 2003, and a somewhat decelerating economy.

    “We’re still pretty optimistic— as long as we see the rebounding consumer spending, economic growth and expansion in manufacturing, tonnage should still be strong through the New Year,” Headley said.

    About the Author

    Terrence Nguyen

    Voice your opinion!

    To join the conversation, and become an exclusive member of FleetOwner, create an account today!

    Sign up for our free eNewsletters

    Latest from News

    ID 119046131 © Jonathan Weiss | Dreamstime.com
    English language proficiency support
    A FleetOwner survey illustrates how industry readers view the government renewed English language proficiency enforcement. Respondents overwhelmingly support ELP in out-of-service...
    Daimler Truck
    Daimler and Volvo's Coretura leadership
    Two of the largest global truck OEMs have established a joint venture to develop one software-defined vehicle platform, bringing standardization to the industry. While the company...
    Nissan
    Lofaro succeeds Judy Wheeler, who is retiring after nearly 15 years of dedicated service to the brand.
    Major leadership changes are happening for Mack Trucks, Volvo Trucks North America, and Nissan Americas.