ATA Truck Tonnage Index surges 5.7% in August
American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 5.7% in August 2016 following a 2.1% decline during July. In August, the index equaled 141.8 (2000=100), up from 134.2 in July. The all-time high was 144 in February.
Compared with August 2015, the SA index rose 5.9%, the largest year-over-year gain since May’s 5.9%. In July, the year-over-year increase was 0.2%. Year-to-date, versus the same period in 2015, tonnage was up 3.5%.
“Volatility continues to reign in 2016,” said Bob Costello, ATA chief economist. “This month’s tonnage reading highlights this fact and underscores the difficulty in determining any real or clear trend in truck tonnage. What is clear to me is that normal seasonal patterns are not holding in 2016.”
Costello noted that during the month of August over the previous three years, the average change in not seasonally adjusted tonnage was just 0.3%. This August, tonnage surged 4.8%.
“Despite a difficult-to-read August, I expect the truck freight environment to be softer than normal as well as continued choppiness until the inventory correction is complete,” he said. “With moderate economic growth forecasted, truck freight will improve as progress is made with the inventory overhang.”
Trucking serves as a barometer of the US economy, representing 68.8% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled just under 10 billion tons of freight in 2014. Motor carriers collected $700.4 billion, or 80.3% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.