C.H. Robinson recently increased its 2026 refrigerated truckload cost-per-mile forecast, citing continued tightening of carrier capacity, according to its July freight market update.

The company expects its 2026 refrigerated van cost-per-mile forecast to increase 35% year over year. While demand is expected to ease slightly after the Fourth of July holiday, constrained capacity is expected to keep upward pressure on refrigerated pricing throughout the year.

Seasonal produce shipments continued to shape refrigerated market conditions in June, though disruptions were less severe than in previous years. Southeastern markets experienced the greatest capacity constraints, as produce harvesting and replenishment cycles drove short-term demand, while northern markets remained comparatively balanced except for periodic surges.

In the Central U.S., Midwest markets stabilized following earlier disruptions, but Texas and surrounding South Central markets remained tight due to produce movements, cross-border freight, and ongoing supply constraints. Those conditions kept capacity and pricing elevated, particularly for time-sensitive refrigerated shipments.

Looking ahead, C.H. Robinson expects produce volumes to decline after the holiday, easing some demand imbalances. However, the company said underlying supply constraints will likely prevent the level of seasonal rate softening typically seen in previous years. Texas is expected to remain one of the tightest refrigerated markets, while pricing pressure is forecast to persist across key reefer lanes.

On the West Coast, California and the Pacific Northwest continued to see steady outbound demand for produce, with capacity tightening around peak harvest periods and major agricultural shipping lanes. As harvest activity shifts geographically, demand is expected to moderate, though limited carrier supply is likely to keep rate declines modest compared to historical seasonal patterns.