The new fleet frontier: trade, technology—and resilience
Between global supply chains, geopolitical interdependence, and increasingly complex workforce structures,
As if life for fleet managers was ever simple, various new external and internal pressures are making fleet operations downright complex. So this year’s NAFA Fleet Forecast panel was organized to help, with a session focused on “Navigating Today's Top 5 Fleet Challenges.” Industry experts unfolded a roadmap for survival today and success tomorrow, ranging from trade wars and energy volatility to the incredible potential, and risks, of Artificial Intelligence.
Geopolitical quagmire: tariffs and trade
The discussion opened with a look at the "chaos" of international trade policy, with which most in the audience are all too familar.
Michael Parr, senior advisor at HillStaffer, noted that while the Supreme Court recently voided certain global tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the administration continues to use tariffs as an all-purpose tool. This has left many companies in a state of flux, waiting for refunds while the administration pivots to other legal authorities to maintain a 10% to 15% tariff impact on the industry.
The looming renegotiation of the USMCA agreement remains a critical focal point, particularly for the automotive sector’s deeply integrated North American supply chain. While political "froth" and strained relations between U.S., Canadian, and Mexican leadership create uncertainty, Parr expects the underlying provisions to remain in place during protracted negotiations.
“So the tariffs are not as bad as they could be, and there are a whole host of exemptions that have been granted in a very public way,” Parr said. “And I think we should continue to expect tariffs kind of come and go from this administration.”
Energy markets and the 'strait' of uncertainty
The volatility in global energy markets is compounding these trade concerns.
Despite the U.S. being the world's largest oil producer, prices remain tethered to global benchmarks. The panel highlighted the Strait of Hormuz as a primary global choke point, where Iranian influence—leveraged through threats to shipping—has driven oil futures and spot prices toward $150 a barrel.
The ramifications extend beyond the gas pump. Because the Strait facilitates the transit of 20% of the world’s oil and gas, as well as critical materials like helium for chip manufacturing and fertilizer, fleet operators are facing "persistently high fuel prices" and broader supply chain disruptions.
The real control point isn't just military might, but insurance, as Peter Nogalo, marketing manager at Holman Enterprises, noted; if tankers cannot get insured to sail through high-risk zones, the global economy feels the pinch.
“If you can hit a tanker with a drone, with a short-range missile from shore, from a rocket-propelled grenade from a Zodiac boat, the insurance companies just don't want to take that risk,” Nogalo said. “Boats can't get insurance, so they're not sailing. And just because we clear the Strait doesn't mean insurance companies are going to start reinsuring.”
The EV transition: from mandate to market
The shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) has undergone a signficant transformation, moving from a policy-driven push to a market-driven reality.
Following a "rapid unwinding" of Biden-era policies by the current administration—including the clawback of tax credits and infrastructure funding—OEMs are struggling to navigate tens of billions of dollars in EV investments while the market cools.
“Major OEMs were predicting 100% EVs by 2035 in those heady days, but the markets never really supported those goals,” Parr said.
He suggested that while the global market still trends toward electrification, U.S. fleets should prioritize decisions based on "predictable business models" rather than policy speculation.
Operational excellence and the human element
To manage this complexity, Kathryn Foster, director of strategic services at Holman, urged fleet operators to move beyond "chasing headlines" and embrace scenario-based flexible planning.
"Total cost of ownership is always going to be key," Foster emphasized, also stressing the need for fleet managers to break out of silos and collaborate with finance and sustainability departments to translate global trends into bottom-line impacts.
Bob Adamsky, senior director at AWP Safety, shared insights on the different demands required to manage local fleets with 500 vehicle compared to a national or even international fleet of 5,000 vehicles. Growth requires a shift from tactical "doing" to strategic leadership.
“One of the things that you look forward to as you grow is key partnerships, working out supplier partnerships that can meet those needs ahead of time,” Adamsky said. “If you have a good business plan and you know where you're going to grow, plan ahead. Have those resources already moving before you get there.”
This evolution includes hiring specialized talent—such as telematics and data analytics specialists—to move the organization from emotional reactions to data-driven responses.
The AI revolution and data control
Perhaps the most significant technological shift discussed was the rise of AI as the "operating model for modern mobility.”
Holman’s Foster cautioned that AI is not an "easy button" or a one-time event, but a series of iterations that leverage data for predictive maintenance and revenue optimization. The success of these tools hinges on data quality; "garbage in, garbage out" remains the primary risk for fleets attempting to automate decision-making.
Furthermore, the panel addressed the burgeoning battle over data ownership. As OEMs seek new ways to monetize vehicle data—exemplified by BMW's attempt to charge for seat heater access—the fleet industry is advocating for "Right to Repair" legislation to ensure that the data generated by a vehicle belongs to the owner or lessee, as fleets were advised to think of their vehicles as data platforms, or “rolling computers,” as Parr explained.
“OEMs are looking somewhat enviously at the hotel and airline industries and all the different ways they found to monetize their offerings—to charge you for things that are not things had been charged for previously,” Parr said, using baggage fees as an example. “So the OEMs are looking for ways to monetize things that have not been monetized—and data is a pretty easy one.”
Conclusion: Control what you can
As the session concluded, the consensus was clear: the next 12 months will be marked by ongoing political and economic uncertainty.
The experts' advice to fleet professionals was to "keep it simple.” By focusing on internal business needs, maintaining compliance, and leveraging strong partnerships, fleet operators can control the "controllables" in an otherwise uncontrollable global landscape.
Easier said than done, of course.
About the Author
Kevin Jones
Editor
Kevin has served as editor-in-chief of Trailer/Body Builders magazine since 2017—just the third editor in the magazine’s 60 years. He is also editorial director for Endeavor Business Media’s Commercial Vehicle group, which includes FleetOwner, Bulk Transporter, Refrigerated Transporter, American Trucker, and Fleet Maintenance magazines and websites.
Working from Beaufort, S.C., Kevin has covered trucking and manufacturing for nearly 20 years. His writing and commentary about the trucking industry and, previously, business and government, has been recognized with numerous state, regional, and national journalism awards.