How Trump is changing emissions standards, fleets' operating costs

The new leader of the nation’s environmental agencies is a vocal opponent of climate policy and emissions standards. Zero-emission vehicles were a top industry concern in 2024, so how will this new administration affect the trucking industry in 2025?

Fleets can expect Trump, with direct control over the country’s primary environmental authority, to follow his campaign platform in reducing environmental standards, according to industry experts who spoke with FleetOwner.

“During his first term and on the campaign trail, Trump has been a proponent of ‘drill, baby drill’ and an opponent of a government-mandated transition to electric vehicles,” Prasad Sharma, attorney with transportation law firm Scopelitis, told FleetOwner. “Therefore, with challenges to EPA’s Phase 3 GHG rule already filed, we could expect the Trump administration to revisit and significantly revise that regulation’s de facto imposition of zero-emission truck requirements.”

On his first day in office, the president already began the radical shift in nationwide emissions policies. Here is everything the new administration has done—and could do—to impact truck emissions regulations.

Emissions regs affect fleets’ costs

The most impactful environmental regulations for trucking are the emissions standards set by the U.S. EPA and California Air Resources Board. These rules primarily regulate OEMs in the manufacturing/sale of their trucks and powertrain assets.

Push for further fuel production

The United States in 2024 produced the most oil of any nation in history, but the Trump administration hopes to further increase oil production on federal land.

The president on his first day published a slew of executive orders to boost oil production and reduce renewable energy:

Mandated a review of all agency actions that potentially burden domestic energy development
Ordered agencies to “eliminate harmful, coercive ‘climate’ policies that increase the costs of food and fuel”
Challenged U.S. wind energy production
Withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement
Declared a “national energy emergency,” directing agencies to fast-track energy production on Federal land and issue emergency fuel sale waivers.

The orders will likely introduce slight downward pressure on fleets’ diesel prices over the next year, though they do not guarantee fuel prices will fall.

While reducing harmful emissions, environmental protections also increase the costs of fleet equipment. The latest wave of standards affecting model year 2027 vehicles could increase truck prices by as much as $25,000.

The Trump administration will likely further order EPA to weaken state and federal greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles, easing the rate at which trucks get more expensive. However, Trump’s auto policies will also heavily disrupt automotive production, as adjunct trade professor Warren Brown writes in IndustryWeek.

Revisions to EPA’s emissions standards likely

EPA’s latest major emissions rules regulate NOx and greenhouse gas emissions. Both regulations introduce lower pollutant standards and longer warranty period requirements, raising equipment costs.

EPA’s latest rule on truck emissions, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles–Phase 3, received the most attention. This rule is most likely to face revisions from the new administration.

Trucking industry groups overwhelmingly criticized GHG3, calling the rule “unrealistic” and an “electric vehicle mandate.” Some industry groups filed suit against EPA for the rule. Republicans strongly oppose GHG3. Partisan lawmakers previously introduced bills to block the rule. Republican attorneys general from 24 states also joined a lawsuit challenging GHG3.

During the 2024 campaign, Trump suggested he would again roll back EPA’s emissions rules. Trump’s pick to lead the EPA, Lee Zeldin, also promised “fair and swift deregulatory decisions.”

“On Day One of the Trump administration, not only will Crooked Joe’s electric vehicle mandate be terminated, but any Biden waiver allowing gasoline-powered cars to be outlawed will be immediately revoked,” the Trump campaign told Politico in March.

The first day of the Trump administration did not terminate GHG3. However, the president did begin his battle with emissions standards.

One of his first executive orders mandated an immediate review of all agency actions that “potentially burden the development of domestic energy resources,” including emissions standards. The aim of the review is to ultimately remove or revise those standards. In the same executive order, he required a review to challenge whether EPA can regulate greenhouse gases at all and paused funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that supported electric vehicles.

GHG3 likely won’t disappear overnight. In his first term, when Trump weakened EPA vehicle emissions standards, he instead replaced the existing regulation with a weaker version. A Trump EPA would likely replace GHG3 with a weaker version, maintaining some portions of the original rule’s timeline.

How exactly this new, weaker rule could change the industry is still a mystery.

The Truckload Carriers Association’s VP of government affairs, David Heller, thought the administration might tweak its timeline to be more forgiving for new equipment.

“I think there will be major discussions regarding strategic improvements, possibly more realistic timelines because the timelines that are out there right now are just not working for the industry,” Heller told FleetOwner.

However, the president’s advisers have sway over his decisions. In a recent FleetOwner Market Pulse video, Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, suggested that this may change the trajectory of emissions rules. Elon Musk is both the owner of Tesla—manufacturer of the Tesla Semi BEV—and an adviser to the president. Musk may influence the president’s control over EPA.

Expedited environmental permits

One of Trump’s promises for 2025 is that companies will receive expedited environmental permits and approvals.

The first Trump term ignored environmental permits to fast-track infrastructure projects in response to the pandemic. Trump issued an executive order in June 2020 that allowed projects to override environmental permitting requirements.

This past December, Trump posted on social media that any group investing a billion dollars in the U.S. “will receive fully expedited approvals and permits, including, but in no way limited to, all environmental approvals” for his next term.

Trump on his first day ordered a review of permitting processes like the National Environmental Policy Act and ordered the Council on Environmental Quality to propose rescinding NEPA regulations.

A reduction in permitting requirements may slightly boost economic activity and, subsequently, freight demand.

“I would think, at least based on some of his core businesses, it wouldn’t surprise me that he would be inclined to support more expensive diesel engines that are more complex to operate,” Vieth said.

The administration might instead weaken warranty requirements—reducing the rise in new diesel equipment costs while still giving an edge to heavy-duty EVs.

“The bigger part of the regulation is the warranty extension on the emissions system,” Vieth said. “Could the solution be as easy as ‘let’s get rid of the warranty extension and this isn’t a $20,000 regulation; it’s a $7,000 regulation?’”

Fleet owners can feel confident in assuming the new administration will weaken emissions standards for new equipment eventually. However, fleets should keep an eye on how exactly this deregulation will roll out. The nature and timeline of GHG3’s deregulation will be a factor in the cost of future trucks.

Existential threat to CARB rules

The California Air Resources Board is perhaps the most contentious regulator for U.S. trucks. CARB’s environmental regulations will face similar opposition from the Trump administration.

CARB only sets emissions standards for California and participating states but is still an influential regulator of commercial vehicles. Its influence is due in part to the state’s economic size: California had the fifth-largest GDP in the world in 2023. With California’s size, plus that of the several other adopting states, CARB regulations have a tremendous impact on interstate carrier and OEM operations.

“There’s a tremendous global presence based on California alone that creates, basically, a de facto national administration,” Heller said.

For trucking, the major CARB regulations in the crosshairs are Advanced Clean Trucks, Advanced Clean Fleets, and the Heavy-Duty Omnibus. ACT and ACF mandate the sale/adoption of zero-emission trucks, and Omnibus sets strict emissions requirements. Like GHG3, the CARB regulations limit the availability of—and help raise the cost of—new trucks.

Like GHG3, trucking industry associations and Republican politicians frequently criticize and oppose CARB’s regulations. The board’s regulations face lawsuits from groups including the National Truck Equipment Association and state attorneys general.

While CARB is a state-level agency, it requires federal permission to enforce regulations in the form of EPA waivers. For example, CARB received waivers for ACT and Omnibus—but it has not received a waiver for ACF, rendering it unenforceable. These waivers allow Trump’s EPA some control over CARB’s regulatory authority, which the president will likely exercise in his second term.

In his first term, Trump temporarily revoked a CARB waiver. The Biden administration reversed the action. California already convened a special legislative session in December to brace CARB for the incoming Trump term.

Scopelitis’s Sharma noted that courts have not yet decided whether a president can revoke waivers.

"While the courts are working their way through several issues, including a related issue on redressability and standing, we will be paying attention to whether a Trump EPA would rescind the waiver already granted for the Advanced Clean Trucks regulation," Sharma said. "That regulation is making it more difficult to purchase new diesel trucks. Although a court has not decided whether an EPA waiver can be rescinded.”

On his first day as president, Trump ordered EPA to review “state emissions waivers that function to limit sales of gasoline-powered automobiles” and develop a plan to revise them.

CARB will likely continue to enforce its established regulations and follow their timelines. Conflict with the federal government, however, poses an existential threat to the regulations. Interstate carriers will want to keep an eye on CARB’s waivers over the next year.