Heavy-duty truck orders continue to tumble as concerns for 2026 grow

Pullback persists: Despite modest tariff improvements and greater regulatory clarity, fleets continue to defer replacement and expansion plans amid weak freight demand, according to FTR analysis. The firm also noted that the trucking industry continues to grapple with excess capacity, elevated financing and equipment costs, tariff volatility, uneven economic conditions, changing emissions requirements, and continuous margin pressure. 

What they’re saying: Carter Vieth, a research analyst at ACT, noted that November is typically the third-strongest order board month of the year. But not this year. “Despite last month’s announcement regarding EPA27 adding much-needed clarity for the market, the obvious bottleneck to stronger order activity is the lack of carrier profitability,” he stated December 2. “Spot rates continue to tread along the bottom, and while supply is coming out of the market, demand in key freight sectors is lagging.”

On-highway vs. vocational: Both vocational and on-highway segments posted month-over-month and year-over-year declines, according to FTR. Vocational outperformed on-highway on a year-over-year basis, reflecting continued, but cautious, demand heading into 2026.

Will 2026 be any better? FTR noted that concerns are rising for 2026. Cumulative net orders from September through November were down 36% compared to 2024. But the market is now clearer than it was a couple of months ago regarding tariffs on heavy-duty trucks and likely changes to the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2027 NOx rule. Overall, the tariff structure raises costs but in a measured, targeted manner, supporting reshoring while avoiding significant short-term disruption to Class 8 sourcing and production. The expected elimination of the extended warranty requirements in the NOx rule would likely reduce costs substantially—perhaps by about half of the previously expected increase, according to FTR.

Is the uncertainty finally over? Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst, said: “So far, improved clarity has not been enough to offset a host of challenges—weak freight fundamentals, limited carrier profitability, elevated capital costs, and so on—that continue to keep fleets on the sidelines. Fleets are emphasizing cost control, maintenance discipline, and asset utilization over growth, delaying any meaningful rebound in equipment demand until economic and market conditions firm. For truck manufacturers and suppliers, forward visibility remains limited, and order activity is likely to remain uneven until freight volumes and rates show a sustained recovery.”

Is medium-duty any better? ACT Research’s preliminary reporting shows November Class 5 to Class 7 orders in North America fell just 2.9% year over year to 16,300 (after an 11% drop in October to 15,500 units). “Medium duty continues to be impacted by small businesses getting crushed by tariffs, uncertainty, and levels of consumer pessimism typically reserved for recessions,” Vieth said.