Class 8 orders continue to fall well below seasonal averages in Q4

Preliminary Class 8 vehicle orders were down more than 20% this October compared to the same month in 2024, according to two research firms that track North American commercial vehicle markets.

According to ACT Research: Preliminary Class 8 orders totaled 24,500 units in October, down 21% year over year. When including medium-duty equipment orders in North America (Class 5 to Class 8), net orders totaled 40,000 units, down 17% year over year.

According to FTR Transportation Intelligence: Preliminary Class 8 trucks and tractors orders totaled 24,300 in October, up 18% from FTR’s September figures but down 22% year over year. 

Analysis of soft orders: This is the 10th consecutive month of annual declines as Class 8 orders total 230,643 units over the past 12 months, according to FTR. Orders remained well below FTR’s 10-year October average (31,198) as fleets continue to delay replacement and expansion plans. Among the reasons cited by FTR were soft freight demand, excess capacity, high interest rates, tariff volatility, uneven economic growth, regulatory uncertainty, and compressed margins.

What they’re saying: Carter Vieth, a research analyst at ACT, noted how weak these preliminary numbers are for the first month of the fourth quarter: “October is seasonally the strongest month for orders with a 25% seasonal factor,” he said. “This is the time of year when next year’s backlogs get built. Rising costs, still weak spot rates, and ongoing uncertainty continue to hamper for-hire carriers and as a result have led to a muted order season to date. Additionally, private fleet demand has slowed after recent expansion.”

On-highway vs. vocational: Both the vocational and on-highway segments saw monthly gains, but the on-highway market accounted for the majority of the year-over-year decline, according to FTR, reflecting sustained fleet caution heading into 2026.

What about 2026? Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst, said: “Early indicators for the 2026 order cycle reinforce this cautious outlook. Combined net orders for September and October are 32% below year-ago levels, highlighting persistent weakness in freight fundamentals and limited carrier profitability. The month-over-month uptick in October likely reflects targeted replacement activity rather than renewed investment. For OEMs and suppliers, visibility remains limited, and order trends are expected to stay uneven until freight volumes and rates improve. In the meantime, fleets are focusing on cost control and asset utilization over growth, delaying a meaningful rebound in equipment demand until economic and market conditions stabilize.”

How are tariffs impacting equipment? “For the industry, the new tariffs on heavy-duty trucks that are taking effect this month will raise costs but are less severe and more targeted than expected,” Moyer said November 4. “USMCA carve-outs, offsets, and the delayed parts tariff create a measured policy that encourages reshoring and strengthens North American supply chains. Some production appears to be already shifting toward U.S. assembly, though expanding capacity will take time. Overall, the framework aims to boost U.S. manufacturing and reduce reliance on Asia while leaving room for future policy adjustments.”

What about medium-duty? ACT Research’s preliminary reporting shows October Class 5 to Class 7 orders in North America fell 11% year over year to 15,500 units. “Economic uncertainty and rising consumer pessimism continue to weigh on Classes 5-7 demand,” Vieth said.