Class 8 orders end 2025 on three-year high: What does that mean for 2026?

The firm noted that the 42,200 units ordered last month—well above the 10-year December average of 29,351—were up 108% from November 2025 and 21% over December 2024.

Happy end to the year? “After spending most of 2025 in the doldrums, amid stagnant freight rates and beset by policy and regulatory uncertainty, new vehicle demand jolted awake in December,” noted Carter Vieth, an analyst with ACT Research, which tracked 42,700 Class 8 preliminary orders in December. 

That figure outpaced ACT’s 34,000 seasonal average December order figures and was a 16% increase from December 2024 orders, the lone positive year-over-year month in 2025.

Yes, but: Despite the strong performance in December, FTR analysts note that cumulative 2026-season net orders from September through December were down 22% compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting broad market headwinds. Class 8 orders have averaged 22,178 units for the past 12 months.

Clarity over uncertainty: FTR analysts said clearer tariff and emissions policies drove the strong December orders, helping to clear some of the economic uncertainties surrounding the early 2025 Trump administration initiatives. 

“The Section 232 tariffs on Class 3-8 trucks implemented on November 1 turned out to be less onerous than many had feared, and regulatory uncertainty has eased,” FTR noted January 5.

The economy drives orders more than regulations: “Despite greater policy clarity, freight demand remains soft, fleet profitability is constrained, and capital spending discipline persists amid rising costs,” Moyer added. “A more durable recovery in equipment demand will require a sustained improvement in underlying economic and freight market conditions.”

On-highway fleets make bulk of orders: While both on-highway and vocational markets saw similar percentage gains relative to November, on-highway made up the bulk of the y/y increase in December orders, according to FTR.

Constrained freight market persists: After two consecutive months of losses, American Trucking Associations’ For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index ticked up 0.2% in November.

“November’s tonnage reading continues to point to a constrained freight market despite the small sequential increase,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said December 23. “The index was also down from a year earlier, the second straight year-over-year decline. In addition to challenging volumes, more capacity appears to be leaving the industry after a prolonged freight downturn and increased government enforcement measures targeting unqualified drivers and noncompliant carriers.”

For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index: In November, the ATA advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index was 112.4, up from 112.2 in October. The index, which is based on 2015 as 100, contracted 0.3% from the same month last year, following a 1.5% decline in October. Year to date, tonnage was unchanged compared with the same period in 2024.