When the entire world was thrown into a lesson on modern survival, our reliance on the trucking industry became even more pronounced. Since then, there’s been some appreciation in the press and a few signs in some yards, but the unsung system of moving freight continues to remain anonymous. It will always be a constant struggle to manage multiple distribution channels so goods and services can reach the consumer. Practically all of it depends on trucking at some point, but most people still have no idea that society would collapse without trucks.
Business leaders have become more focused on the fragility of supply chains, so I applied that to the trucking industry and came up with three critical areas: trucks, fuel, and drivers. I put drivers last for a specific reason because there is a real possibility that trucks could be driven in the same or a similar way to drones being flown from thousands of miles away. Imagine an integrated network of vehicles that do not have physical drivers in the seat and are driven with sensors and GPS. One person could control multiple vehicles on different monitors and even step in to drive the truck remotely when alerted or needed.
Fuel is better described as an energy source. Electric trucks are interesting, but the limited range and time to recharge are severe obstacles that must be overcome at a price that’s lower than diesel. Without a national network of hi-speed charging stations, the next best thing would be rechargeable batteries. They would be similar to the batteries on cordless tools but a lot more powerful and probably a lot larger/heavier. Like my driverless truck, it’s possible.
The truck itself will always be the most important link in the supply chain. It can get large quantities of anything to any destination as long as there is a passable road or path. On my driverless rechargeable truck in fantasyland, every component would be electric and simply swapped out when it didn’t work. No more fuel, fluids or compressed air. Technology like electric motors and regenerative braking systems have the potential to change the concept of the commercial motor vehicle.
Of course, the only thing that is unlikely to change at Fantasyland Trucking is the tires. Everything else could look completely different in the immediate and not-too-distant future, but I’m betting the pneumatic tire will continue to play the same role it has played for over a century. There might even be some advances in securing it to the vehicle, but the tubeless radial truck tire has been so reliable and adaptable for so long that it is going to be impossible to replace in my lifetime.
That level of reliance is troubling given what we’ve learned about the dependence on foreign countries for strategically important products or materials. Manufacturing isn’t an issue. There’s enough domestic truck tire capacity to avoid any long-term disruptions and physical space for expansion will not be an issue for most tire companies. If for some reason the supply of imported tires was interrupted for an extended period of time, there would be some short term pain and almost certain price increases, but the trucks would keep moving.
Natural rubber (NR) will always be the weakest link in the vehicle transportation system and more than 70% of the world supply goes to the tire industry. It’s an agricultural product that is constantly subjected to drought, disease and various environmental threats. It only grows in the subtropical regions of Southeast Asia and while other plant alternatives have shown some promise, there will never be enough Russian dandelions and/or guayule to meet the demand from tire manufacturers. The possibility of developing synthetic materials to replace NR still exists, but as far as I know, there are certain performance characteristics of the latex from the Hevea brasiliensis that have yet to be recreated in a lab.
During the rubber shortages of 1942-1945 due to World War II, the effort to ration tires and rubber led to a national “Victory Speed” of 35 mph on all roads, streets and highways. Given the continued fragility of NR production and the fact that about 95% of global output is located in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, India and China, tire manufacturers have a collective interest in maintaining a steady supply of a key raw material that will never be sourced domestically. As a result, they are founding members of the Global Platform for Sustainable Natural Rubber (GPSNR) to “lead improvements in the socio-economic and environmental performance of the natural rubber value chain.”
Approximately 85% of global NR production is categorized as smallholders where local people cultivate scattered patches of Hevea brasiliensis. Many of these small co-ops are either unaware of or unable to afford sustainable farming practices. The GPSNR is trying to change that and help them develop environmentally sound practices. Given the long term strategic importance of tires in the trucking industry, supporting their efforts will help ensure the sustainability of NR to keep things like victory speeds in the history books where they belong.
