Empty seats

Finding and retaining truck drivers for larger fleets remains an elusive task for carriers, if recent data compiled by the American Trucking Assns. (ATA) is accurate. The ATA Trucking Activity Report found that the second-quarter annualized turnover rate at large truckload fleets (those with more than $30 million in annual revenue) has climbed to 99%, up 2% from the previous quarter.

Smaller fleets, though, fared much better in the second quarter.  Truckload fleets with less than $30 million in annual revenue saw driver turnover rates hold steady at 82%.  The real positive is for less-than-truckload fleets, which saw a 9% drop in turnover to just 6%, the lowest level in two years, said ATA.

Still, these are second-quarter figures, which came out before hours-of-service changes took effect in July and before more recent economic challenges such as the October government shutdown and debt ceiling debate. Most experts still see driver turnover and shortage as a major issue for fleets.

“Continued high turnover shows that the market for qualified, experienced drivers remains extremely tight,” said Bob Costello, ATA chief economist.  “The continued improvement in the freight economy, coupled with regulatory challenges from the changing hours-of-service rule and CSA will only serve to put a further squeeze on the market for drivers.”

This tight market will also push costs higher, pointed out Costello, as fleets work harder and spend more to recruit and retain quality drivers.

The increasing number of regulations is also expected to continue shrinking the driver pool, said FTR Associates’ Noel Perry.  A potential total of 26 new regulations, if they all come to pass, could push the driver shortage to as much as 1.4 million in the years ahead.

“We are easily facing the largest collection of regulatory changes in the history of this industry, from ELDs to mandatory speed limits and safety fitness ratings,” Perry explained.  “Hours-of-service reform has been the single biggest shock to the system, reducing trucking productivity by 3% nationwide.”

John Larkin, managing director of the Stifel Transportation & Logistics Research Group within Wall Street firm Stifel Nicolaus & Co., noted that legislation will have an impact on the driver pool.

“Virtually all of the proposed federal rules and regulations either reduce the size of the driver pool or reduce the productivity of the drivers remaining in the pool,” he said. “[As a result], drivers remain a scarce input.”
North of the border, drivers are also lacking, according to Canadian trucking experts. The Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA) published a Blue Ribbon Task Force report earlier this year that predicts a driver shortage in that country of 33,000 by 2020 unless changes are made. The report noted that it is up to carriers to solve the issue by adjusting everything from pay scales, to productivity, to driver wellness.

“Some members of the task force are implementing the core values, but not all of them are doing it or at the same time.  It depends upon their lanes, their markets,” said Marco Beghetto, vice president of communications & new media for CTA. “We have to look to carriers, not government, for solutions. We’re the ones who hire and fire drivers and we’re the ones who pick our customers, too.  The Task Force made it clear that the buck stops here.  The industry must pull up its socks and take a closer look at why it’s difficult to hire new drivers.”