OEMs, carriers gave up forecasting earnings

Earnings forecasts and guidance are normal for public companies. They allow companies to share quarterly or yearly expectations with shareholders.

However, major companies across the U.S. economy are now scrapping or reducing their earnings forecasts.

The nation’s three largest fleets either scrapped or reduced their market predictions.

FedEx (No. 1 on the FleetOwner 500: For-Hire) in March reduced its revenue outlook from “approximately flat” to “flat to slightly down” year over year. UPS (No. 2 on the FO500: For-Hire) announced it is not updating its 2025 guidance. Knight-Swift (No. 3 on the FO500: For-Hire) shortened its guidance length, moving from two quarters of guidance on volumes and profits to only forecasting the second quarter.

See also: Warning: Severe tariff consequences approaching

Several automotive manufacturers made similar announcements in their earnings reports:

• Cummins withdrew its full-year guidance, citing “growing economic uncertainty driven by tariffs.”
• General Motors reduced its earnings guidance from January, stating that it expects a tariff exposure of up to $5 billion.
• Ford Motor Company suspended its guidance, blaming “tariff-related uncertainty.”
• Volvo Group, parent of Volvo Trucks North America, in late April reduced its annual sales forecast for North America, from a previous “-10% to 0%” unit sale growth prediction to “-15% to -5%.”
• Volvo Cars, a passenger vehicle manufacturer independent from Volvo Group, declined to provide financial guidance for 2025 or 2026, vaguely citing “external developments and increased uncertainty.”
• Stellantis suspended its annual guidance “due to tariff-related uncertainties.”
• Mercedes-Benz largely cut its forecasts, noting only that its outlook has broadly worsened.

Declining to provide guidance tends to lower a company’s stock valuation immediately. However, declining to provide guidance does not always mean the company has unspeakably poor expectations. Quarterly forecasts, for example, may lead to an impractical focus on short-term earnings. During the pandemic, some firms appreciated the opportunity to use volatility as an excuse to escape quarterly forecasts.