Industry experts predict AI, rates, and consumer behavior in trucking for 2026

This time last year, experts predicted a trucking market upturn and the continued growth of artificial intelligence in 2026. One thing no one predicted was the uncertainty brought upon by the stop-and-go tariffs and their impact.

Will 2026 prove to be just as uncertain? Can we expect the economy to grow? FleetOwner has compiled insights from multiple industry players over the past month to help trucking leaders plan for the upcoming year.

Prediction: AI will go from conversation to operations in 2026

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have been around for decades, but they exploded in late 2023 with the public launch of ChatGPT. Since then, countless articles have been written about how to optimize operations using the technology. In 2024 and 2025, every transportation technology conference prominently featured, debuted, or educated attendees on AI use cases. Needless to say, AI and ML are here to stay, trucking. 

Neil Cawse, founder and CEO of transportation technology company Geotab, believes that this year, “AI is going to run operations, not just conversations.”

“AI is going to move from the world of ChatGPT—asking a question about my health or getting it to summarize a document for me or asking advice on a proposal—to being implemented as part of the business processes that run through the organization,” Cawse said during a media roundtable in December 2025.

Cawse’s specific prediction is that companies will employ and train AI agents to perform real-world tasks that simplify and speed up operations that are easily automated. These operations could be in accounting, customer requests, and more.

While AI agents should excel in operations that are easily automated, they do pose a risk. AI hallucinations, or AI outputs that use incorrect or false data, are common. One study found different AI models to have hallucination rates from 37 to 94%. With this in mind, Cawse predicts that companies will initially use AI agents in operations that are easily human-verifiable and, over time, improve how we train AI agents to enable them to support operations across other parts of the business.

At its core, preventing AI hallucinations is a form of accountability for AI users, which Ron Thomas, chief revenue officer at AI translation company Smartcat, said will be a theme for 2026. And accountability with AI spans from AI results to its return on investment.

“Across executive conversations, the tone around AI has shifted from optimism to accountability,” Thomas said in a recent “Smartcat 2026 Predictions” release. “Leaders are now evaluating AI with the same standards they apply to revenue systems, expansion strategy, and operating costs … AI is being judged less on promise, and more on performance, and that shift will define how organizations invest in it.”

Prediction: No big freight upswing in 2026

Rates are low and have been for some time. Can we expect some relief in 2026? A recent 2026 predictions panel of industry experts and economists does not think so. This is tied to sluggish demand.

Throughout 2025, U.S. manufacturing underperformed, resulting in thousands of job losses in the sector. This downturn in manufacturing began in February, following the unveiling of President Donald Trump's tariff plan. 

Manufacturing is a large driver of freight. Take vehicle manufacturing, for example. Every vehicle part must be transported to each assembly facility, usually by truck, to be assembled into a vehicle. Once assembled, the vehicle is loaded onto a truck and shipped across the U.S.

If no vehicles are being manufactured, those trucking companies will need to find other freight to haul.

“If you haul truck parts for Daimler or Volvo, it's gonna be a rough next six months in terms of your freight lines; I can certainly tell you that right now,” Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said during the panel.

Aside from manufacturing, construction, oil production, and agriculture are other segments that drive freight demand, and unfortunately, Miller predicts there won’t be much happening in any of those segments this year to get freight carriers excited. 

Prediction: Capacity isn’t likely to drop significantly, but rates could fluctuate even more in 2026

For 2026, Miller predicts capacity will drop only 3-5%, with 5% “being on the high end and including expanded enforcement,” such as with English language proficiency and nondomiciled CDLs. However, he notes that payroll for over-the-road drivers is down about “45,000 to 50,000” compared to trucking’s capacity peak in late 2022 and early 2023.

“That means a lot of drivers lost their jobs,” Miller said. “Many of these individuals legitimately have a CDL. … You also have a lot of people who lost jobs, who aren't driving now, who could hop back in with a little bit of time if that is a better job opportunity.”

While Miller said he doesn’t expect these drivers, who’ve lost their jobs, to reenter the market and offset the 5% capacity drop in 2026, we can’t ignore the nonworking truckers who could reenter at the right moment.

As for rates, David Spencerer, Arrive Logistics’ VP of market intelligence, said that while “supply is down”—and he’s expecting it to stay down—what can fluctuate is the attitude of industry participants. Some events that can alter participant behavior include uncertainties and irregularities in enforcement, as well as seasonal weather.

“Look at what you saw in early October,” Spencer said. “You saw that response to nondomicile CDL enforcement triggered some rate volatility there… Right after Thanksgiving, widespread winter weather hits the Midwest and the Northeast, and that's an opportunity for carriers to raise their rates and push. We didn't see that early December lull like we typically see, and I think a lot of that was driven by participant behavior, i.e., the carriers resisting any kind of rate declines and pushing rates up.”

Ultimately, Spencer believes that while the 2025 holiday freight rate boom will eventually subside, the industry can expect higher rates during peak seasons throughout 2026.

“Our forecast calls for somewhere in the 8 to 10% at-peak year-over-year growth,” Spencer said.

Prediction: Tax returns, rebates could spur spending in 2026—or debt will cripple consumers

Retail is another segment that affects freight. And the more people purchase, the more goods must be shipped between warehouses and retail stores. The strength of the American consumer economy was also shown this past holiday season, with record-breaking spending. 

“You should never short the U.S. consumer; the U.S. consumer comes out again and again,” Aaron Terrazas, an industry consultant and economist, said during the panel. “I just have to wonder, how long can that hold up?”

According to the latest numbers as of Q3 2025, Americans are drowning in debt. The nation’s total household debt reached an all-time high in 2025—and these numbers don’t take the holiday season into account. With consumers entering 2026 with their highest-ever debt, we could see a significant drop in spending.

It could also go the other way.

Some households could see larger tax returns this season due to the Trump administration’s deductions outlined in the One Big Beautiful Bill. Additionally, Trump has floated the idea of issuing stimulus checks to Americans based on revenue from tariffs enacted in 2025.

This surge of cash into American households' bank accounts is likely to drive an uptick in consumer spending. 

Miller cautioned against too much optimism with consumer spending, however, noting that some companies he’s spoken with see tax season as an opportunity to raise prices.

“I've talked to at least a couple of companies that have already said, ‘March 2026, we're raising our prices because those tax refunds should be starting to hit.’ So they're already planning,” he said.

While these individuals are each experts in their field, only time will tell what 2026 holds for the trucking industry.