C.H. Robinson's refrigerated section of its truckload report shows national spot-market rates, including fuel, reached a record $3.60 per mile in September, surpassing the previous all-time high set in February 2022. The company reported that linehaul-only rates remain below the 2022 peak, indicating that fuel is driving much of the current pricing.

On the East Coast, refrigerated markets are beginning to follow seasonal patterns after peak produce shipping in northern growing regions. The Northeast recorded one of the largest declines in outbound load-to-truck ratios during September as equipment availability improved and capacity conditions eased. Rates remain elevated, but recent increases have been driven largely by fuel surcharges.

The Northeast is expected to loosen further during October as refrigerated capacity becomes more available following the summer harvest period. Diesel costs are expected to continue supporting higher all-in transportation rates than shippers typically see at this point in the season.

In the Central U.S., refrigerated conditions continued to normalize following peak produce season. The Upper Midwest saw relief in outbound load-to-truck ratios as harvest-related freight moderated and capacity returned to the region. Southern markets also experienced lower linehaul rates as demand softened from summer highs.

Transportation costs remain elevated in the Central region because of higher fuel surcharges. Freight conditions are expected to stabilize in October, with Texas and Upper Midwest markets following more traditional seasonal patterns. 

The West Coast remains the tightest refrigerated region, with the Pacific Northwest recently experiencing the most significant capacity tightening. Seasonal produce is supporting demand, and capacity is expected to remain tight through October as harvest continues.

Diesel prices over $8 per gallon in parts of the West Coast have increased refrigerated transportation costs at a point in the season when rates typically soften. Southwest rates remained firm despite the usual September decline, while California markets are expected to remain heavily influenced by fuel costs. Even if linehaul pricing stabilizes, elevated diesel prices are likely to keep all-in refrigerated transportation costs above seasonal norms.

What this means for the trucking industry

Refrigerated carriers and shippers are facing a market where record all-in rates do not necessarily signal a broad-based surge in freight demand. The gap between all-in and linehaul rates shows how heavily fuel is influencing transportation costs. For fleet executives and shippers, fuel costs and regional capacity trends will be important factors when planning refrigerated transportation through October.