It's time to seriously consider alternative fuels

I was in middle school when the Great Recession hit in 2007. Thankfully, my parents kept their jobs, but the rising inflation and fuel prices changed their spending behaviors.

At some point during the recession, I remember gasoline rising to nearly $5 a gallon, even where I lived in the South. While I was a kid with no interest in adult conversation, I distinctly remember the impact fuel prices had on me and all of my friends. Vacations were closer to home, we all now ate the store brand cereal, and everyone’s parents were contemplating trading their gas-guzzling SUVs for more fuel-efficient rides.

I remember my dad, a politically conservative, nearly 300-lb. 6’2” man, contemplating the purchase of a Toyota Prius to drive back and forth to work so he could park his diesel-powered pickup. But ultimately, my parents decided to keep the vehicles they already owned and instead play it smart.

“If gas prices are going up, fill your tank every day; if they’re going down, wait a while to fill up,” my mom would say. Any time my dad would accelerate too quickly, she’d call him out with a “Listen to that engine burning all that fuel we just bought!”

In times of fuel crises, at least within my lifetime, the U.S. has fared much better than other countries, thanks to our fuel reserves and production. But at what point will we decide that crude oil is too volatile to rely on?

In trucking, at what point will fleets decide it’s too volatile to build a business on?

Fuel is the second-highest per-mile cost for fleet owners, right behind driver wages, according to the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI). Fuel costs have a direct impact on the bottom line, and these increases leave fleets at the mercy of the global crude oil market. When costs rise, fleets are automatically less profitable. From the outside looking in, it’s hard to find the practicality in building a business that relies on such a volatile commodity.

During the Great Recession, crude oil-powered vehicles were our only option—aside from the Prius hybrid, which had been available for several years prior. It’s worth noting that by 2008, many OEMs were developing or had hybrid vehicles available; however, few Americans had the cash to purchase them. That was the case for my family. While my dad—a proud Ford F-250 diesel owner—considered buying a Toyota Prius—he did the math and decided he’d fare better by simply driving more intentionally rather than purchasing a new vehicle. 

But that’s the thing about price instability: If it’s bad enough, it causes even die-hard diesel and gasoline users to consider another option. When gas and diesel were hovering at $5 a gallon in 2008 and between $4 and $6 a gallon in 2022, the conversation about switching to newer technologies never centered around environmental sustainability. It was always about costs and practicality. 

In 2008, fleet owners and commercial vehicle operators didn’t have the option to purchase a hybrid or another alternative-fuel powertrain to ease the pressures at the pump, even if they had the cash for it. Nearly 20 years later, this is no longer the case. Most OEMs in both the consumer and commercial segments have battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) available for purchase.

For the light-duty segment, General Motors has multiple electric models available, including the Silverado EV. While Ford has ended the production of its electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, it’s still available for purchase. Multiple electric medium-duty models are available, such as the Isuzu NRR EV, the Kenworth T280E, and Harbinger’s lineup of commercial vehicles. There are also heavy-duty options, such as the Volvo VNR Electric and the Freightliner eCascadia.

FleetOwner has written about many of these vehicles and how fleets are using them. Read more about them by scrolling through the articles linked below:

Additionally, EVs aren’t the only powertrain option to combat fuel prices that swing with each global disruption. Not only are OEMs developing BEVs, they’re also developing alternative fuel-powered vehicles. 

Multiple OEMs have developed vehicles compatible with the Cummins X15N, a natural gas engine. This engine is available in the Freightliner Cascadia (fifth generation), Kenworth T680 and T880, and Peterbilt 579, 567, and 520 models. The X15N has already been tested in multiple fleets, with fleets reporting performance comparable to a diesel engine. While the X15 is focused on the heavy-duty segment, Cummins also offers a natural gas engine for medium-duty operations, the B6.7N. 

Then there’s hydrogen, which is somehow still on OEMs’ development radar despite its costs and infrastructure development setbacks. Just last week, Toyota partnered with Daimler Trucks and Volvo Trucks on the trucking companies’ Cellcentric venture, which is working on the development of hydrogen fuel cell trucks. Cellcentric hopes to begin production “around the turn of the decade.”

Why alternatives could make sense for your fleet in 2026

Now, before you rush to comment that “EVs don’t make sense for my business!” or “These new technologies haven’t been around long enough to be proven,” know that I am well aware that electric trucks will not make sense for every trucking operation and that I fully understand the hesitancy of throwing money at something that might not work out. However, I believe it’s time fleet owners seriously begin weighing the pros and cons, running the numbers, and considering trials of these new powertrain technologies in their operations. Here’s why:

Alt-fuel powertrains could reach diesel price parity very soon

Thanks to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the cost of heavy-duty trucks will rise. With EPA27 still in effect, or the requirement for heavy-duty trucks to emit no more than 35 milligrams of NOx per horsepower-hour (the current regulation is 200 milligrams per horsepower-hour), engine manufacturers are now adding new technology to their equipment. These additional technologies and aftertreatment system updates come at a cost, some $10,000 to $20,000 tacked onto the cost of a MY 2027 heavy-duty truck.

At the same time, alternative powertrain technologies are becoming more powerful and more cost-efficient. For example, even while the Cummins natural gas-powered X15N is offered at a higher sticker price than current diesel models, it should lead to lower fuel and maintenance costs over time, Ian MacDonald, VP of Hexagon Agility, a provider of natural gas fueling systems, told FleetOwner earlier this year.

This elevated price of heavy-duty trucks, coupled with the already higher-priced alternative-powered trucks, along with their lower cost of operation, could be the ticket to breaking even between diesel and alt fuels in their total cost of ownership (TCO).

Commercial vehicle owners in the light-duty segment could see cost parity even sooner. The cost of EV batteries has fallen significantly over the years, while these batteries are becoming more powerful. And the cancellation of federal incentives to help offset the higher costs of EVs will force OEMs to design more cost-efficient electric vehicles, Jay Collins, SVP and GM of Energy Transition at Wex, a commerce platform that specializes in fleet payment management, told FleetOwner back in January. Collins believes this will cause EVs to reach price parity, or even make EVs one-third less expensive than traditionally fueled light-duty vehicles, by the end of 2027.

Productivity comparisons between diesel and alternative fuels

These new technologies are also offering similar productivity for traditionally diesel-powered operations. In its latest powertrain operations demonstration, Run on Less, the North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE) compared diesel, natural gas, renewable diesel, battery electric, and hydrogen-powered trucking operations.

Results from the Run found that natural gas trucks are “proving to provide the needs of diesel with more power, torque, range, and fill times,” the research organization posted on its website. Further, electric vehicles are becoming more competitive with diesel in terms of “range, weight and costs” for specific duty cycles, the Run proved.

Other technologies, such as renewable diesel and hydrogen, are possibly still a little too new in terms of infrastructure for significant adoption, but they “show promise,” according to Run results.

Diesel prices have never been stable. Is that the case with alternative fuels? 

I’m going to get the bad news out of the way and address something you likely already know: The cost to charge an EV is less straightforward than simply filling up a tank of diesel fuel. While consumers who operate EVs can reap the benefits of lower energy costs for their vehicles, the same can’t always be said for heavy-duty electric vehicles. And due to increased reliance on electricity from the construction of data centers across the nation, electricity costs are rising. While data centers’ electricity use can significantly affect the power bills of individuals and businesses in the area, I believe this is a temporary concern. 

Additionally, unlike crude oil prices, which operate in a global market, utilities price electricity usage very differently. Some states regulate electricity costs, while others have no utility regulations. Electricity is generated differently from region to region as well. Fortunately for some, there are utilities out there that are willing to work with fleets on EV adoption, and some offer special rates specifically for EV charging. However, not all utility providers will offer these special rates. It’s up to fleets to do their own research and determine what makes the most sense for them.

Fleets considering CNG, however, might find fuel costs more favorable to traditional diesel fuel. Fleets can fuel compressed natural gas engines either on-site at their depot or at select public filling stations. Historically, CNG prices have also been much more predictable because of domestic production and because prices are set based on domestic demand. 

While high concentrations of biofuels, such as biodiesel, are used less by trucking operations, the fuel can be distributed through typical diesel infrastructure, such as directly from the pumps offered at Pilot Travel Centers, giving fleets a more familiar alternative. Biodiesel is known to be a bit more expensive at the pump, but many states offer tax credits for biofuels, which could help with diesel price parity.

Diesel is fun, but alternative technologies are smart

Because my main focus of coverage at FleetOwner is alternative fuels and emissions, I’ve heard all the naysaying about new powertrain technologies. I understand the cost constraints, the infrastructure concerns, and the time and effort required to bring a new powertrain into operations. On top of that, I know our industry just loves diesel. Those chrome smoke stacks are part of what makes a classic truck so beautiful, right?

But for one moment, replace warm fuzzy diesel emotions with the voice of reason. The more alt-fueled and electric vehicles we can bring into the commercial vehicle industry, the less reliant we will be on crude oil and the less global conflicts—which we have no control over—will affect our bottom line. Introducing these different powertrains into trucking and commercial vehicle operations will trickle down to more price stability, better competition, and the ability to tailor our fleets according to the powertrain that best suits our operations.