The rise of cost-effective EVs and the impact of tariffs on maintenance

Advanced technology continues to create more ways for fleets to improve their operations. But it can be difficult to keep up with what works best now, what will work better soon, and what still needs improvements before it catches on and proves a return on investment.

AI (artificial intelligence) has dominated the trucking tech industry since 2024, and experts predict that trend will continue. On the other hand, electric vehicles (EVs), which had industry momentum a few years ago, have seemed to falter. Could 2026 see another wave of adoption? And something that crippled business decision-making in 2025—tariffs—will likely impact businesses in 2026.

Electric vehicles could see growth this year, while tariffs are expected to push fleets to rely more heavily on technology to save money. FleetOwner spoke with multiple experts and seasoned transportation gurus to find out what fleets might expect in the coming year.

Prediction: The cost of EVs will come down, providing opportunities for wider adoption

Electric vehicles were the hottest topic in the industry a few years ago, but in 2025, the mood shifted. This past year saw a presidential administration that sought to end the “electric vehicle mandate” and chose not to renew federal EV incentives. Over the past 18 months, several EV-only OEMs have gone out of business, while some automakers have discontinued or reduced EV programs. It’s enough to make you wonder if the EV era is over before it barely began. 

However, this environment could be what’s needed to push OEMs to improve their EV products and offer them at prices that make sense for commercial operations—at least for light-duty EVs. Jay Collins, SVP and GM of Energy Transition at Wex, predicts we’ll begin to see that shift this year.

“The first wave of EVs was driven by sustainability, and we believe the next wave will be driven by total cost of ownership,” Collins told FleetOwner. If the battery alone accounts for 30 to 40% of the total cost of the EV, according to the Environmental Defense Fund, “and you've watched battery prices go from about $153 a kilowatt-hour a few years ago down to the low $80s today … as that occurs, the major cost of the vehicle (the battery) gets more powerful and less expensive.”

Potentially, this could lead to EVs reaching price parity with internal combustion engines (ICE) within the year and possibly even costing a third less than ICE in 2027, Collins predicts. But it’s going to take some OEM retooling to make this happen.

First-generation light-duty EVs largely focused on the luxury buyer, but fleet leaders are “not looking for all the bells and whistles,” Collins said. “They're looking for a vehicle that meets its duty cycles—fit for purpose. And ‘fit for purpose’ has a pretty specific price point.”

Last August, Ford announced its plan to produce an all-electric four-door midsize pickup truck with a sticker price “around $30,000,” available in 2027. Collins believes EVs with a similar price point will usher in the next wave of electric vehicle adoption.

Further fueling EVs’ price declines are stiff competition, especially coming from Chinese electric automakers. While Chinese EV brands aren’t widely sold in the U.S., American automakers and foreign automakers that sell in the U.S. compete with these brands in other parts of the globe. 

If these OEMs “are forced to figure out how to produce these vehicles cheaper for their other markets, why wouldn’t they bring that to the U.S.?” Collins asked.

Prediction: Tariffs will increase the reliance on preventive and predictive maintenance technology

Tariffs dominated headlines in 2025. The constant “will they, won’t they” of implementation and the uncertainty they caused were palpable within the transportation industry. Wex’s Fournier predicts the effects of tariffs will linger into 2026 as well, primarily with capital expenditures—including vehicle acquisitions.

In 2024, industry players anticipated 2025 and 2026 would be a busy year for truck orders, expecting fleets to pull purchases forward to avoid the premium expected on model year 2027 trucks that will comply with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's regulations. That prediction never came to fruition because of a lagging economy and the anticipation that the regulation could be changed under the new administration.

While the EPA has announced the emissions portion of the regulation will stand, without much economic improvement, Fournier doesn’t expect the big “prebuy” to take off. Instead, he believes the industry will see some equipment purchases, but many fleets will delay procurement, instead relying on predictive maintenance technology to prolong the life of their current assets.

Some will want to “invest in things like preventive maintenance differently to make sure that they're maintaining vehicles … and make sure that the total cost of ownership is at the highest point, meaning that it's the most efficient way to use an asset in the company,” Fournier explained.

Predictive maintenance platform Uptake has already seen the effects of this in 2025.

Company data shows that the median age of trucks on the Uptake platform increased by approximately one year between 2024 and 2025, reflecting fewer newer trucks added to its platform. Additionally, the percentage of trucks on the platform that are 10 years or older grew 20%; the percentage of younger trucks, from current model year to two years, decreased by 40%.

A forward-thinking fleet

While these are all only predictions, here’s what’s certain: AI will continue to expand in the workplace; the model-year 2027 emissions standards for heavy-duty trucks have been set; and while EVs have lost much of their momentum, not everyone has pulled the plug.

Without a crystal ball, it’s impossible to know how much these emerging technologies will impact trucking operations, but planning and looking ahead can set fleets apart from their competition.