Weighing truck replacement costs amid EPA ’27 standards, tariffs, and market volatility
Key takeaways
- EPA ’27 emissions rules, rising equipment prices, and tariff uncertainty are forcing fleets to rethink replacement timing and consider strategic pre-buys.
- Leasing and dealer maintenance programs are gaining appeal as fleets try to control risk, manage talent shortages, and ensure uptime in volatile conditions.
- Delaying replacements can backfire—older trucks bring higher maintenance costs, reduced fuel efficiency, and unpredictable breakdowns, hurting long-term profitability.
There’s rarely a “perfect” time to replace trucks, but 2025 may be one of the toughest decision points in decades. The industry sits at a crossroads wedged between woeful economic margins, an uncertain regulatory environment, and a market still reeling from pandemic-era distortions.
According to Brian Antonellis, SVP of fleet operations at Fleet Advantage, the word that best describes the state of the industry today is “uncertain.” After years of disruption from pandemic-era supply chain breakdowns, evolving emissions mandates—and now tariffs—the normal rhythms of fleet renewal have been completely upended.
Much, but not all, of the current anxiety stems from the EPA 2027 emissions standards, which aim to sharply reduce NOx output from heavy-duty engines. While that goal aligns with the industry’s environmental progress, it comes at a significant price.
Some industry insiders have suggested new engine technology and warranty requirements would add $20,000 to $25,000 to the price of a new tractor. There might be an upside to the regulatory uncertainty. Antonellis believes the OEMs will move forward with redesigned emissions systems and improved combustion technology, but he thinks they will delay the required warranty component.
"We are going to see a lighter increase—$10,000 to $15,000—depending on the manufacturer, in calendar year 2027 [MY 2028] to cover the new hardware, but we think there's going to be a delay on the warranty component," Antonellis said. "That would bring the increase down to a more manageable level."
Even if parts of the rule are delayed, the hardware and software costs are all but inevitable. That’s pushing fleets to consider strategic pre-buys in 2026 to acquire equipment ahead of 2027 models. But consider might be all they can do.
We have the capacity to produce about 315,000 trucks a year, but we're only going to produce about 265,000 this year because there's just not enough demand, Antonellis told FleetOwner.
"We thought 12 or 18 months ago you wouldn't be able to get a truck in Q4 2025," he said. "The softness in the market and delayed rebound is lasting longer than most typical cycles do."
Delaying purchases isn’t new. Fleets did the same thing during the pandemic when OEM allocations and supply chain bottlenecks forced them to extend trade cycles. But this time, the hesitation stems from uncertainty rather than scarcity.
While OEMs no longer face the crippling backlogs of 2020–21, the freight market hasn’t recovered enough to justify aggressive purchasing. Spot and contract rates remain soft, inflation is pressuring operating margins, and tariffs have re-entered the conversation like an uninvited guest.
Fleet electrification: Power management drives efficiency
The withdrawal of many federal subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act has reshaped the path toward electrification in the trucking industry. While the initial wave of funding accelerated early adoption of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), its retreat has created a new environment in which, without the blunt force of federal mandates, fleets can integrate electric technology at a pace that aligns with their business objectives.
At the heart of this transition lies a new focus: power optimization and distribution. Most logistics facilities, such as ports, warehouses, and manufacturing centers, already operate on substantial electrical loads. By coordinating transportation planning with energy management, fleets can better control costs, reduce downtime, and maximize return on investment, according to Al Barner, Zeem Solutions SVP of strategic fleet solutions.
"I spend a lot of time with well-managed private fleets and carriers. Every one of them is laser-focused on reducing cost per mile, or whatever operating metric they use. But what I encourage them to do now is shift that focus away from cost-per-mile toward power distribution and energy management."
The next frontier isn’t simply about replacing diesel with electric; it’s about orchestrating how power flows through the entire supply chain.
"Integrating energy management into fleet strategy transforms electrification from an environmental goal into a competitive advantage, unlocking a new era of efficiency, resilience, and profitability," Barner told Fleet Owner.
The impact of tariffs on fleet acquisition and costs
“These Mexico tariffs came out of the blue,” Chuck Noel, director of national accounts for C&W NationaLease, said. “They were implemented within 60 days, then put on hold, then maybe back in 30 days. You can’t place an order for trucks when you don’t know what the price will be next month.”
Even a U.S.-built, majority-sourced truck will have some tariff implications, Antonellis noted.
"For example, if a truck is assembled in Mexico, but 90% of your components come from U.S.-sourced providers, your tariff implication on the 25% cross-border tariff will be 25% of the 10% of the vehicle that wasn't sourced from the U.S. when it crosses the border," he pointed out.
It gets muddier when you calculate the exact percentage of non-U.S.-sourced components. If that dips to 65 or 70%, the tariff jumps significantly. It varies by manufacturer, so it's almost impossible to predict in advance. It could be the difference between $3,000 and $7,000, which could be enough to sway a fleet buyer to reconsider their OEM of choice.
Leasing as a risk management strategy for fleets
In this climate, leasing looks increasingly attractive, particularly for private fleets and small carriers without in-house maintenance expertise.
“Trucks aren’t getting any easier to work on,” Noel noted. “Leasing lets customers focus on their business and lets someone else deal with all that.”
Still, leasing isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution. The long-term cost can exceed ownership once the equipment is paid off, and fleets with strong maintenance programs may prefer to keep control of their assets. But as a risk-management tool in volatile times, Noel believes leasing is hard to beat.
Full-service leasing is a lifeline for small fleets, especially private fleets that lack maintenance infrastructure or technical depth, according to Darry Stuart, president and CEO of DWS Fleet Management Services. It’s about focus—allowing business owners to stay in their lane.
“Your business isn’t fixing trucks,” Stuart said. “If your product is mattresses or bread, you’re not a trucking company—you’re a shipper with wheels. Let the leasing company deal with it.”
Leasing firms and dealer-based service programs offer predictable uptime, maintenance expertise, and relief from compliance and warranty hassles. For smaller fleets, that stability often outweighs the theoretical savings of ownership.
For large carriers with 200 or more trucks, Stuart said leasing doesn’t make as much sense, especially if the fleet has already invested in shops, technicians, and systems.
But even big fleets are feeling the squeeze.
“There’s not a lot of talent left who can really manage trucks,” Stuart warned. “And if you do find someone who can, they’re expensive.”
That talent gap is quietly reshaping strategies. Some fleets are outsourcing partial maintenance or exploring hybrid models, such as buying trucks but pairing them with dealer or OEM maintenance contracts for predictable support.
The traditional leasing giants—Ryder, Penske, and others—may soon face stiffer competition. Stuart predicts that OEM dealers will continue to push into the full-service space.
“I called it years ago,” Stuart said. “The dealers want their piece of the pie.”
By offering “bumper-to-bumper” maintenance contracts tied to truck purchases, dealers can keep customers close and capture recurring service revenue. For fleets, that means new choices—and new contracts to read carefully.
Extending truck life: Costs and operational risks
For operators uneasy about both leasing and buying, extending the life of existing equipment is a tempting fallback. Yet that strategy comes with hidden costs. Maintenance expenses rise sharply with age, fuel economy declines, and trade-in values erode. What starts as a cost-saving move can quietly drain capital.
"Your trucks are essentially going to tell you when they need to be replaced, Antonellis said. "We watch the life cycle of the assets. We understand how much a truck costs in year one, and year three or four."
In year one, when the truck is achieving optimal fuel economy, maintenance is probably running at 2 cents a mile. By year three, it's up to 7 cents a mile on the maintenance side—and fuel economy is still fairly strong. By the time you get to year four, five, or six, maintenance costs have jumped to somewhere between 12 and 15 cents a mile, and fuel economy is starting to drop.
"On top of that, you're competing on the fuel economy side against new trucks that have gotten 2% better every year since your truck was built five or six years ago," he points out.
“Once you pass that 600,000 to 700,000-mile mark, things go sideways,” Stuart cautioned. “Transmission failures, wiring issues, breakdowns—it's impossible to predict the trucks' long-term flat costs."
Fleet owners face a challenging road ahead, but it is navigable. Trucks will age, costs will rise, and regulations will tighten, but the fleets that thrive will be those that make data-informed, disciplined decisions rather than emotional ones.
“The fleets that are successful are the ones that understand the cost curve of maintenance, repair, and fuel economy, and make strategic buying decisions around that,” Antonellis concluded. "It’s about balance and timing, not panic.”
A reset for fleets: From subsidies to smarter power strategies
The withdrawal of many federal subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act has reshaped the path toward electrification in the trucking industry. While the initial wave of funding accelerated early adoption of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), its retreat has created a new environment in which, without the blunt force of federal mandates, fleets can integrate electric technology at a pace that aligns with their business objectives.
At the heart of this transition lies a new focus: power optimization and distribution. Most logistics facilities, such as ports, warehouses, and manufacturing centers, already operate on substantial electrical loads. By coordinating transportation planning with energy management, fleets can better control costs, reduce downtime, and maximize return on investment, according to Al Barner, Zeem Solutions SVP of strategic fleet solutions.
"I spend a lot of time with well-managed private fleets and carriers. Every one of them is laser-focused on reducing cost per mile, or whatever operating metric they use. But what I encourage them to do now is shift that focus away from cost-per-mile toward power distribution and energy management."
The next frontier isn’t simply about replacing diesel with electric; it’s about orchestrating how power flows through the entire supply chain.
"Integrating energy management into fleet strategy transforms electrification from an environmental goal into a competitive advantage, unlocking a new era of efficiency, resilience, and profitability," Barner told Fleet Owner.
About the Author
Jim Park
Jim Park is an award-winning journalist who has covered the trucking industry since 1998. Before that, he racked up 2 million miles as an over-the-road truck driver and owner-operator pulling tank trailers. He continues to maintain his CLD. Park's previous driving experience brings a real-world perspective to his work.