Tariff headwinds and weak freight market drastically sink trailer orders

Preliminary U.S. trailer orders weakened in November as the freight market continues to grapple with tariff-driven higher costs and weak for-hire fleet profitability, according to two research firms that track commercial trucking equipment trends. 

According to ACT Research: November preliminary orders were 4,100 units lower than October’s 17,100 level, a 24% month-to-month decrease. At 13,000 units booked in November, order intake was 37% below last November’s level. Seasonal adjustment at this point in the annual order cycle decreases the tally to about 10,500 units. 

According to FTR Transportation Intelligence: Trailer net orders weakened in November, falling 19% month over month to 13,071 units and plunging 45% year over year. The decline highlights the fragility of demand as October’s seasonal lift proved short-lived rather than the start of a sustained recovery.

FTR attributed the orders below historical norms to tariff-driven increases in trailer costs, soft freight demand, tight margins, and limited confidence in a near-term rate recovery. The sharp year-over-year drop suggests fleets are deferring discretionary replacements deeper into 2026 and possibly 2027, according to the research firm. Growth-oriented ordering is unlikely until freight fundamentals and fleet profitability materially improve.

What they’re saying: “Sequentially, a slight dip in net orders is expected, as October is usually the strongest order intake month of the annual cycle, with orderboards for the next year beginning to open,” Jennifer McNealy, director of CV market research and publications at ACT Research, said December 16. “November’s tally brings the year-to-date net order total to 151,300 units, or 9% more net orders than were accepted through year-to-date November 2024. Not only do net orders continue to underwhelm, cancellations remain elevated.”

The kind of year it’s been: Per FTR, net trailer orders total 148,862 units, up 7% year over year 11 months into 2025. However, much of 2025’s gain is due to 2024 demand being so weak that many fleets waited until after the 2024 presidential election to place orders. FTR analysts said that a more meaningful comparison period is the 2026 order season. Orders for September-November 2025 are down 28% year over year.

What’s working against the trailer market: “The U.S. trailer market is increasingly constrained by trade policy, elevated input costs, and cautious fleet behavior,” Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst for commercial vehicles, said December 17. “Policy-related actions are now a central driver of both cost inflation and demand uncertainty. Limited visibility on trade outcomes continues to complicate pricing, sourcing, and capital allocation decisions across the industry.

Production vs. demand: U.S. trailer production pulled back in November as builds dropped 23% month over month—roughly twice the typical seasonal decline—and edged 1% lower y/y to 13,533 units, according to FTR’s figures. Despite the pullback, production continues to outpace demand as OEMs manage labor levels, fixed-cost absorption, and year-end capacity utilization. As a result, backlogs were down 1% month over month and 23% year over year to 72,697 units, but the backlog/build ratio improved to 5.4 months because of a larger monthly drop in production than in orders. Additional production cuts likely will be needed to prevent further backlog erosion unless the 2026 order season improves meaningfully, according to Moyer.