Shipping volumes in May 2020 came in 23.6% lower than May 2019, according to the Cass Freight Index. That is only a 1.6% change in the absolute index from April (now at 0.938) and indicates the ramifications from shutting down the country due to COVID-19 concerns and the meteoric rise in unemployment will be long lasting. By comparison, May 2018 was at 1.31 and May 2019 was 1.23.

In its summary of the data, Cass wrote, “We were surprised not to see more of an uptick; the re-opening schedule appears to have unfolded slower than we anticipated—and also because the freight data reported by some of the public companies (LTL carriers and rails specifically) showed a more significant sequential jump and better y/y [year-over-year] improvements than Cass showed.”

Cass expects “significant improvements” for June, normally the top performer of Q2. Reaching 2019 levels will be unlikely until 2021, though. “The long-term effects of sky-high unemployment and 0% interest rates should be quite negative and sufficient this year to suppress any kind of sharp rebound in activity,” according to Cass.

Expenditures dropped 21.2% for May year-over-year, from 2.845 to 2.243, which also fell 5.7% from April. Revenue managed to increase 3.1% year-over-year.

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, currently 130.06, was up .7% from April, and dipped 5% from May 2019.

Spot rates are also down according to DAT Solutions data. Dry van has fallen 8% y/y, reefer is down 7% y/y, and flatbed is 13% lower.

“We believe the spot market (as well as the contract market) has bottomed and that the rebound in rates will depend on the strength of the recovery coupled with the pinch of industry supply from factors besides just truck production, such as rising insurance costs and limited driver supply,” Cass concluded.