Rohlwing: Is your fleet ready for higher truck tire prices?

Truck tire prices are dependent on three factors: natural rubber (NR), crude oil, and energy.

The agricultural component cannot be overlooked, and with the low-yield season underway, global supply pressure is mounting.

On the crude oil front, prices haven’t been in the $100/barrel range since the spike coming out of the pandemic in 2022. Unrest in the Strait of Hormuz has caused the increase.

On the energy front, natural gas prices have fallen as spring temperatures have set in. Unfortunately, Qatar has already lost 17% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, which could take three to five years to repair.

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) represents about 80% of global production, all of it in Southeast Asia. Its latest report highlights improving weather conditions, which is a positive sign. Nevertheless, NR prices have been climbing and are approaching a 10-year high. ANRPC expects demand to remain strong given the anticipated rise in automotive production in China, India, and Southeast Asia. Unpredictable weather affects all agricultural products, and while conditions are currently favorable, the wintering season runs through June.

The unpredictability in NR is nothing compared to the volatility in the crude oil market. Prices have doubled since December 2025, and prices are expected to remain in the $100/barrel range through June. Some analysts project the price could surge above $120/barrel if supply disruptions continue and the conflict in the Middle East escalates. Truck tire manufacturing is dependent on crude oil, and it’s been four years since diesel was priced at $5 per gallon. It’s going to cost more to manufacture and ship truck tires for at least the next few months.

You can’t build a truck tire without heat, and natural gas is the most effective and economical power source for generating steam. It also requires a lot of electricity, so plants that depend on natural-gas-fired power are going to see higher production costs. Since the U.S. is an LNG exporter, conditions in Qatar won’t have a major impact on domestic manufacturers’ supply, but offshore tire companies will feel some pain. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) does not expect domestic price increases. Still, Europe and Asia are already seeing historically high prices, which will affect the prices of imported truck tires.

All of the components for the next series of truck tire price increases appear to be in place. If just one component were affected, the costs could be absorbed. However, pricing pressure on all three fronts has the elements of a perfect storm. As a result, fleets need to prepare for higher tire prices if that storm hits.

Prepare for the storm

Improved inflation pressure management is the first step. Underinflation reduces tire life and increases the cost per mile. By spending additional labor dollars on checking and adjusting inflation pressure, fleets get more mileage out of every tire. It’s also a bonus for retreading.

The same pricing issues apply to retread manufacturing, but the actual increase will be less because a retread is about half the cost of a quality new tire. Approximately half of the truck tires in the U.S. are retreads because they deliver the best cost per mile (when properly inflated). For those fleets still resistant to retreading, it might be time to give retreads a chance.

No one can predict the future, and I hope I am wrong, but the headwinds are just too strong to ignore the possibility of higher prices for truck tires and retreads. If something miraculous happens in one or two of those three critical areas in the coming months, an increase might be avoided.

Unfortunately, all signs point to volatility and unpredictability in the futures of NR, crude oil, and LNG, so fleets need to start planning sooner rather than later. While I don’t anticipate any supply shortages, publicly traded tire companies are expected to make a profit, and rising production costs are prime territory for across-the-board price increases.