As fleets roll into the second half of the year, the Trump administration continues making headlines with a new regulatory action every few weeks.

In just the last week, I scrambled to cover the federal regulatory agenda, the new NOx amendments, and a truck-parking funding announcement. In the spirit of betting apps like Polymarket and Kalshi, I have some overconfident predictions about exactly where the regulatory road is bending for the rest of 2026.

From NOx to autonomous trucks, here you’ll find the important background information on pressing regulatory issues—and at least one prediction for each.

Final NOx rule

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued its long-awaited NOx program amendments as a proposed rule earlier this month. The rulemaking, true to the American Trucking Association's prediction a year prior, culled the warranty extension to lessen manufacturers’ regulatory burdens. Unexpectedly, it also proposed removing DEF derates. The Trump EPA already made its disdain for derates clear, but the proposed removal in the NOx rule was a curveball.

Since the rule concerns model-year 2027 equipment, the EPA faces pressure to issue a final rule before the end of this year.

Prediction: The final NOx amendment rule will be published before November, with no significant changes from the proposed rule. A separate rule, allowing shops to remove DEF derates from existing powertrains, will take longer.

Motus tweaks

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) finally launched its new online registration system, Motus, in May. The rollout was less than smooth.

Users are reporting several technical issues with identity verification, first-time login, MCS-150 updates, linking U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) numbers, insurance filings, or operating authority statuses (essentially, the entire platform’s critical functions). FMCSA even temporarily suspended the inactivation of USDOT numbers for any entities that missed their June 1 update deadline.

Detention pay recovery company HaulClaim launched a website for the issue called stuckwithmotus.com. So far, 64 carriers reported experiencing Motus issues through that website.

FMCSA plans to continue tweaking the new registration system, but the scale of Motus’s technical problems—and the work required to fix them—remains unclear, making it difficult to offer any specific predictions.

Prediction: Motus will gradually fix its most critical functions through 2026, but many fleets will still suffer hours-long customer service calls to update their information.

Independent contractor / DOL rule

The interpretation of an independent contractor under the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) changed frequently over the last decade. Most recently, the Department of Labor (DOL) began a rulemaking process this spring to once again change its independent contractor interpretation. The latest interpretation in the proposed rule would resemble a canceled 2021 rulemaking from the first Trump administration.

Trucking lobbying groups have been vocal about this very specific regulatory interpretation. Many fleets’ drivers sit somewhere in the blurry space between contractor and employee. The first Trump administration also gave fleets a very kind interpretation in 2021, where DOL specifically stated that speed limiters were not an employer-like form of “control” over a driver.

The latest rulemaking mirrors the 2021 interpretation, but unlike that interpretation, DOL’s proposed rule omits any example of a speed limiter.

In February, the Truckload Carriers Association’s David Heller correctly suggested the rulemaking would take place this year and thought that the process would “be more expedient than your traditional rulemaking process that we generally see.”

Prediction: By December, DOL will publish the final rule on the FLSA independent contractor interpretation, largely identical to the 2021 proposed rule—and it will not include the speed-limiter example.

Autonomous truck rules

The Trump administration is interested in autonomous vehicles (AVs). Take, for example, the appointment of AV leader Seval Oz as assistant secretary of transportation or Vice President J.D. Vance’s quotes in favor of autonomous trucks.

The federal government already has several NHTSA rulemakings to reduce the regulatory burdens of autonomous passenger vehicle designs. FMCSA is proposing new regulations for the testing and deployment of automated driving systems for commercial vehicles—but the last update to that rulemaking was in 2023.

Autonomous trucks still face a patchwork of state-level regulations with little federal guidance. The federal government may not be able to preempt those state regulations, but it has the opportunity to lay some groundwork to support interstate driverless hauls.

Prediction: The agency has enough on its plate. FMCSA will not issue a proposed rule on autonomous commercial motor vehicles before 2027.