The tyranny of choice

We all like to think that having a lot of choices is a good thing. The reality is that having too many things to choose from can be daunting. This is particularly true when it comes to alternative fuels to power commercial vehicles.

We all like to think that having a lot of choices is a good thing. The reality is that having too many things to choose from can be daunting. This is particularly true when it comes to alternative fuels to power commercial vehicles.

In our recent Guidance Report, Viable Class 7/8 Electric, Hybrid and Alternative Fuel Tractors, we identified a wide variety of fuel options that are available:

  • Commercial battery electric
  • Fuel cell hybrid electric
  • Compressed natural gas
  • Renewable natural gas
  • Liquefied natural Gas
  • Propane
  • Hybrid diesel electric
  • Renewable diesel

The question many fleets are asking is: Which one is the right one? Based on so many choices, they assume that if they wait long enough, it will become obvious which technology is “best.” The example set by diesel fuel’s universal applicability creates hope that there is one single technology that will replace diesel and the solution will be clear and easy.

While that could be true, it likely won’t be for many years to come. What we are facing now is what we are calling “the messy middle.” This is a time when fleets need to adjust their expectations and realize they will need to have a range of solutions to cover their operational spectrums.

During the next five to 10 years, these fledgling technologies will mature and allow for a clearer view of the future. In the meantime, however, fleets need to dive in and start testing some of these alternatives. Doing so will allow them to participate in the development and optimization of these alternatives and realize their benefits over the next years.

Fleets that wait on the sidelines for “the one right answer” will find themselves at a competitive disadvantage. I encourage fleets to look at their various duty cycles and bump them up against the currently available alternative fuel options. Each of those alternatives has duty cycles where it fits best.

At the risk of self promotion, I also encourage fleets, manufacturers and other key trucking stakeholders to read our latest Guidance Report, Viable Class 7/8 Electric, Hybrid and Alternative Fuel Tractors. I’d like to think that it will help guide you to the make the right choice today. That choice may change as we work our way through the messy middle, but it really is better to be in the game than on the sidelines. Jump in.

About the Author

Michael Roeth

Michael Roeth

Executive Director

Michael Roeth is the executive director of the North American Council for Freight Efficiency. He serves on the second National Academy of Sciences Committee on Technologies and Approaches for Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles and has held various positions with Navistar and Behr/Cummins.

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