Roeth: Why trucking cycles through booms and busts, and what fleets should expect

A freight recession. The war in Iran. The changing regulatory environment. An economic slowdown. Tariff uncertainty. Rising diesel prices.

If you are new to the trucking industry—and a lot of folks are, thanks to all the cool technological developments and work on making trucking more sustainable—you might be wondering why you picked this industry given the current state of things.

And it doesn’t help that when you attend trucking industry events, the “old timers” are mostly talking doom and gloom.

I have a bit of advice for both people who are new to the industry and those of us who have been around for a while.

Trucking is cyclical. Truck build rates can swing from 350,000 to 200,000 from one year to the next. We used to be able to predict many of these boom and bust years based on pending emissions changes. There was the inevitable pre-buy by some fleets to avoid having to buy trucks with the perceived untested technology. Those enormous sales years were followed by a year of very depressed new-vehicle sales.

However, factors other than emissions regulations impact trucking, including the economy and what is happening on the geopolitical stage.

Here we are in 2026, with things looking not so great for the trucking industry—but we have been here before. More importantly, the industry has survived tough times. It is true that during a depressed freight market, some firms will exit the business; however, many others will tighten their belts and continue to operate, becoming stronger than they were previously.

For those of you who are new to trucking, I suggest you spend a few minutes strolling through the history of new-vehicle sales. Once you do, I think you may be reassured that better times are coming. While we do have “bad times,” we also have good times ... and even great times. The reality is that trucking will always play a vital role in the economy, making this is a good industry in which to spend your career.

For those of us who have been through a down cycle or two, remind yourselves that bad times don't last very long, and an upswing in the trucking economy is coming soon. Talk to a newbie in the trucking industry about the good times that follow the bad times and how they can weather the storms and stay optimistic about trucking’s future.

When you decide to make your home in the trucking industry, it is important to remember that you are signing up for a wild ride. There is something about this industry that grabs many of us and keeps us in it for decades. I guess we must like wild rides.