ACT Research: Utilization shifts into reverse in November
The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index, with November data, showed relatively neutral readings on for-hire freight volumes and rates, with 51.5 and 50.9 respective diffusion index readings.
With a slight contraction in for-hire capacity, the supply-demand balance remained in modestly positive territory for a fifth straight month. However, the Productivity Index fell to 48.4 in November, from 53.9 in October.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index is a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers. ACT converts responses into diffusion indexes, where the neutral or flat level is 50. For-hire executives interested in participating should contact ACT at [email protected]. In return, participants receive a detailed monthly analysis of the survey data, including Volumes, Freight Rates, Capacity, Productivity and Purchasing Intentions, plus a complimentary copy of our Transportation Digest report.
“With some key caveats, we think the string of positive supply-demand results is a positive leading indicator for a capacity rebalancing in 2020,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst. “The first caveat is that private fleets, the other half of the industry, are not showing the same capacity discipline as the for-hire fleets. The second is that the freight volume outlook remains muted, with a soft manufacturing sector and trade-related inventory overhang likely outweighing relief from the China phase-one deal, which is yet to be signed.
“Tractor utilization has been choppy all year, amid soft freight and overcapacity, but the biggest surprise in this month’s survey was the sharp reversal in tractor productivity, a signal that while the freight recession is likely in the late-innings, the trucking industry is still staring at difficult conditions in the near-term.”
The ACT Freight Forecast provides forecasts for the direction of truck volumes and contract rates quarterly through 2020 with three years of annual forecasts for the truckload, less-than-truckload and intermodal segments of the transportation industry. For the truckload spot market, the report provides forecasts for the next twelve months. The ACT Research Freight Forecast uses equipment capacity modeling and the firm’s economics expertise to provide unprecedented visibility for the future of freight rates, helping businesses in transportation and logistics management plan for the future with confidence.