C.H. Robinson recently highlighted regional shifts in the refrigerated truckload market as produce harvests move north across the U.S. The company said overall market conditions remain balanced, but freight demand, capacity, and pricing are diverging between northern and southern growing regions.

Northern markets have experienced tighter refrigerated capacity throughout the third quarter. Outbound load-to-truck ratios have increased two to three times compared with early summer levels, and spot rates have climbed by double-digit percentages.

Seasonal harvest activity is driving much of the increase. Potatoes, onions, sweet corn, apples, cherries, and other late-summer produce are increasing outbound freight demand across the Upper Midwest, Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and other northern agricultural regions. Increased demand for refrigerated equipment has intensified competition and supported stronger pricing.

Southern markets are experiencing the opposite trend as produce growing seasons wind down. Freight activity has declined in markets that earlier in the year handled watermelons, berries, tomatoes, citrus, and other produce.

Outbound load-to-truck ratios in southern markets have fallen to one-third to one-half of their early summer levels. The decline has contributed to lower spot pricing and improved capacity.

C.H. Robinson expects these seasonal patterns to continue. Northern markets traditionally experience strengthening cost-per-mile trends through the remainder of the harvest season, even as load-to-truck ratios begin to level off. Harvest activity, seasonal food demand, and year-end shipping patterns are expected to remain primary drivers.

Southern load-to-truck ratios are expected to reach their annual low point during September before gradually rising. Capacity availability and pricing are expected to stabilize and follow more traditional seasonal patterns through the remainder of the year.

C.H. Robinson 2027 refrigerated truckload forecast

C.H. Robinson's 2027 refrigerated truckload forecast calls for rates to continue rising year over year throughout 2027. The largest increases are expected during the first half of the year, driven by relatively soft comparisons from early 2026 and tighter capacity across the trucking industry. Rate increases may taper as 2027 progresses.

What this means for the trucking industry

The current market is becoming increasingly regional, making it important for carriers and fleet managers to track produce-driven freight patterns rather than relying solely on national refrigerated market conditions. Northern markets could provide stronger pricing opportunities as harvest activity continues, while southern markets offer greater capacity availability.

The 2027 forecast also points to another year of rising refrigerated truckload rates, particularly during the first half. Fleets can factor those expectations into equipment deployment, capacity planning, and pricing strategies.