Driver pay is rising on fleet executives’ watch lists
Key takeaways
- Major fleets expect driver wages to rise as enforcement actions reduce driver supply.
- Carriers say better productivity and more miles are key to attracting and retaining drivers.
- Tightening capacity could increase labor costs as trucking demand begins to recover.
As regulatory enforcement on cabotage, English-language proficiency, and other fronts gathers momentum, several large-fleet leaders are turning more of their attention to the major effect of removing thousands of drivers from U.S. roads.
During recent conversations at an investment bank conference, executives of J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Schneider National, and Werner Enterprises said they’re preparing for driver pay to climb as supply shrinks. Also set to contribute is the hoped-for beginning of an upcycle and growing competition from the manufacturing and construction sectors, which are also starting to recruit more talent.
Spencer Frazier, J.B. Hunt’s EVP of sales and marketing, told the 16th Annual Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference that the leaders of the No. 4 company on the 2026 FleetOwner 500 list of largest U.S for-hire carriers think the shakeout of drivers who shouldn’t be behind the wheel is “maybe” in the second inning. That’s even though tens of thousands of drivers have left the system in recent quarters.
“This industry, like any other, will respond […] Well, the way to do that is going to be creating good-paying American jobs,” Frazier added. “The challenge will be how quickly and how significant the cost impact of driving that change will be […] Whatever this impact is from a driver perspective going forward, we’re going to have to invest.”
Jim Filter, Schneider’s group president of transportation and logistics who will take over as CEO from Mark Rourke on July 1, offered a similar assessment. He told the Wells audience that at least as many drivers as have already left the industry will still exit in the coming months.
As for hiring new drivers and paying them appropriately, Filter said the best way to recruit is to be able to give drivers more time behind the wheel, thanks to better company productivity and with a helping hand from rising demand.
“Get your drivers more miles, they’re happy. The business is very happy as well,” Filter said. “We also have to be able to restore the margin for our organization. Eventually, price has to be able to flow back into increasing driver wages as well.”
For context, J.B. Hunt, Schneider, and Werner—the latter’s leaders told the Wells conference that they haven’t seen a lot of wage pressure yet, but “we’ll see it coming”—spent an average of 29.6% of their operating revenues on salaries, wages, and benefits in 2025. (That figure includes executives, office, and terminal workers as well as drivers.) That was up from 29.1% in 2024 and about 25% in 2021 and 2022, when volumes were far healthier for most carriers.
Should that compensation-to-revenue ratio rise by a percentage point in the near future, the three companies would be paying their workers a combined $190 million or so more annually based on last year’s numbers.
Recently, providing an adjacent perspective to the driver pay dynamic was the team at global logistics and freight forwarding company Expeditors International. During a market update for clients, Senior Director of Ground Network Services John Butler said Expeditors is starting to see signs that a move up in wages is stirring some drivers to “jump from company to company—whoever’s offering sign-on bonuses or maybe better pay.”
Butler also told clients that those higher wages will help carriers lure new drivers to fill some of the gaps left by those that the regulatory crackdown has forced out.
“Regulation enforcement […] is absolutely impacting capacity. That is absolutely going to push up wages for the carriers,” Butler said. “Hopefully, if the wages go up, that will attract entrants to the market.”
About the Author
Geert De Lombaerde
Senior Editor
A native of Belgium, Geert De Lombaerde has more than two decades of experience in business journalism. Since 2021, he has written about markets and economic trends for Endeavor Business Media publications FleetOwner, Healthcare Innovation, IndustryWeek, Oil & Gas Journal, and T&D World.
With a degree in journalism from the University of Missouri, he began his reporting career at the Business Courier in Cincinnati. He later was managing editor and editor of the Nashville Business Journal. Most recently, he oversaw the online and print products of the Nashville Post and reported primarily on Middle Tennessee’s finance sector and many of its publicly traded companies.