Survival of the smartest: Navigating the 2026 freight cycle

Are you more innovative and more efficient than you realize? You could be if you’re still here moving goods after one of the most sluggish years in trucking history. 

More than a month into 2026, we’re reminded that simply hanging up a new calendar doesn’t fix a freight recession. But if your operations survived 2025, you started the new year smarter and tougher. While few expect 2026 to be a boom year for freight, the fleets still standing could see it as a year to build for the next boom—or simply a return to greater certainty as the trucking “tourists” who took advantage of the COVID years are being washed away.

Capacity, spot rates, and tourists

The freight market has finally seen substantial capacity reductions over the past year, as the spot market has strengthened in recent months. 

“It’s quite possible that capacity has bottomed out, so the attention now is squarely on freight demand, which still looks sluggish with both upside and downside potential,” Avery Vise, FTR Transportation Intelligence’s VP of trucking, said in early January. “Trucking companies cannot get to sustained margin recovery on capacity reductions alone.”

In late December and early January, truckload spot rates rose by double-digit percentages compared to 12 months ago, according to ACT Research. The harsh winter weather gets much of the credit for the rise in spot rates in early 2026, Tim Denoyer, ACT Research VP and senior analyst, noted in late January. 

Regulatory clarity and the EPA27 factor

We’re also waiting for the Supreme Court to rule on the tariff case that was argued before them last fall. The justices’ decision could impact the cost of imported goods, inflation, and Fed rates—helping or hurting freight-sensitive sectors such as housing and durable goods, Denoyer said.

“Growth has been led largely by a narrow segment of the economy, but it has room to broaden out if the looming Supreme Court tariff decision brings tariffs down,” ACT’s Denoyer explained. “This would lead to additional broad disinflation, providing more leeway for the Fed to further lower rates, spurring freight-sensitive sectors like housing and durable goods. After destocking in Q4’25, we think the Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs could provide a positive catalyst for freight demand.”

Conversely, Denoyer warns: “Upholding the tariffs would further extend the recessionary conditions the trucking industry has been contending with for the past four years, by pressing prices up further.

Managing the oldest fleet in a decade